Massive floods in Pakistan have struck the rural heart and industrial centers for the first time for decades, causing billions of dollars in damage while tightening food supply, exports and fragile economic recovery.
The government had been optimistic around 2026, which breaks a growth of 4.2% on the back of a rebound in agriculture and manufacturing after the economy was stabilized as part of a bailout of the international monetary fund of $ 7 billion.
Instead, the record rains of the monsoon since the end of June, amplified by the barrage outings in India, submerged large expanses of Punjab and Sindh, the two most populated and economically vital provinces.
While waters have not yet fallen into many districts, managers and analysts warn that the blow could be deeper than in 2022, when a third of the country was underwater, due to double shocks for agriculture and manufacturing.
Read: Indian actions have intensified the flood crisis in Pakistan, say that the officials say
In the plains, satellite images have traced the scale. A report by the agricultural surveillance initiative Geoglam estimates at least 220,000 hectares of flooded rice fields between August 1 and September 16.
In Punjab, the engine of rice, cotton and cotton and corn in Pakistan, 1.8 million acres of agricultural land was flooded, according to the provincial disaster management agency.
“About 50% of rice, 60% of cotton and corn crops have been damaged,” said Khalid Bath, president of Pakistan Farmers Association. He said the losses could exceed 2.5 million acres, worth up to a rupee billion ($ 3.53 billion).
“This is different from everything we have seen in recent decades,” said Iqrar Ahmad Khan, former vice-chancellor of the University of Agriculture Faisalabad.
He believes that at least one tenth of the country’s crops are destroyed, vegetable losses exceeding 90% in certain districts.
The timing is perilous: Pakistan is about to sow wheat, the harvest which provides almost half of the caloric contribution of the country. The national reserves remain comfortable after a strong harvest of 2024, according to Crop Monitor, but the sowing window is at risk in the fields always smooth with silt and mud.
“Food insecurity is coming, not just higher prices,” said Khan.
Underestimate the risks
The Minister of Planning, Ahsan Iqbal, acknowledged that the floods “would decrease” the growth of GDP and said that a clearer count would be ready in about two weeks.
The central bank of Pakistan said that the deluge would lead to a “temporary but significant tender shock” and has put growth near the lower end of its range from 3.25 to 4.25%.
He argued that the shock would be less serious than the disaster of $ 30 billion in 2022, with stronger Forex reserves and lower interest rates offering a certain resilience.
Find out more: Famine floods: how 2025 could trigger an economic crisis
But the prices of wheat, sugar, onions and tomatoes have jumped, pushing a price index sensitive to a level of 26 months.
The resident representative of the IMF, Mahir Binici, said that a next examination of the installation of extended funds this week will assess whether the budget for the year 2026 and the emergency arrangements can meet the needs of the country. Iqbal called on the fund to “help us to mitigate damage”.
Some economists say political decision-makers underestimate risks.
“The floods will increase the deficit in the current account by $ 7 billion. They are worse than previous floods,” said former finance minister Hafez Pacha.
Count the losses
In industrial cities such as SIALKOT – a hub for textiles, sports items and surgical equipment underlying Pakistan exports – several workshops were brown.
The stroke of agriculture is also a blow for manufacturers. Industrialists claim that cotton deficits will repercussions in the textile sector, the best employee of foreign exchange in the country, while rice exporters warn the risks of Pakistan to lose competitiveness in India as prices increase.
“We had 400 acres of cotton, but only 90 are left,” said farmer Rab Nawaz, near the historic city of Multan.
Read also: Private forecasts indicate a rarer GDP drop
At least 1,006 people have been killed since June 26, the National Disaster Management Authority said, while more than 2.5 million people were evacuated to Punjab and Sindh.
In the provincial capital, Lahore, houses and small businesses were emptied. Mohammad ARIF, a 50-year-old rush driver and father of five, said that he had moved his vehicle on a higher land while his house was flooded.
“We have been on the roads for three days,” he said.
