For the current fiscal year, exports of goods are estimated at $35.28 billion and exports of services at $8.38 billion.
The federal government has set ambitious economic targets for the next three years, aiming to increase the GDP growth rate between 4.2% and 5.7%. Other targets include increasing the size of the national economy to 162.513 billion rupees, increasing exports by over $10 billion and increasing remittances to a record $44.82 billion.
According to the three-year macroeconomic and fiscal framework released by the Ministry of Finance, significant growth is expected in exports, remittances, tax revenues and the overall size of the economy.
The report projects that Pakistan’s exports will increase from $44.83 billion to $55 billion over the next three years, an increase of more than $10 billion. Exports of goods are expected to reach $42.69 billion, while exports of services, including information technology, are estimated at $12.24 billion.
Read: Pakistan set to receive $1.2 billion tranche from IMF
For the current fiscal year, exports of goods are estimated at $35.28 billion, and exports of services at $8.38 billion. Imports are expected to increase by $14.5 billion, to $79.71 billion. Remittances are expected to reach a record $44.82 billion in three years, compared to an expected $39.43 billion in the current fiscal year.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Pakistan’s economic growth rate at 3.6 percent for the current fiscal year.
Contrary to forecasts of economic growth of 3.6%, sources said that during last week’s inconclusive discussions, IMF staff had forecast growth of 3-3.5%. According to them, the IMF believes that the recent floods have weighed on the economic outlook, particularly for the agricultural sector, given the damage caused to the main crops of the Kharif.
Learn more: IMF forecasts Pakistan’s growth at 3.6%
The Pakistani government has already adjusted its ambitious target downwards from 4.2% to 3.5%, while the World Bank has set a forecast of 2.6% for the same reason.
The sources said that even in the medium term, the IMF did not forecast an economic growth rate above 4.5% for Pakistan, which also depends on supporting a significant increase in exports and investments.
The IMF Executive Board is expected to approve the third tranche of $1 billion for Pakistan under the Extended Financing Facility (EFF) program at its meeting scheduled for December.
The Fund is also likely to provide $200 million in climate finance, which will be made available through the Climate Resilience Financing Facility.
The service level agreement between Pakistan and the IMF was finalized on October 15. Finance Ministry officials are optimistic that the next tranche of the ongoing loan program will be approved.
