- 2025 saw healthy growth in the PC market, but 2026 looks set to be much more turbulent
- Memory and storage prices are rising, and it’s not good for consumers
- Budget devices could see the biggest price increases
Despite rising 9.2% year-on-year in 2025 (and 10.1% in Q4 2025), Omdia analysts fear that global PC shipments could fall in 2026 due to rising costs and growing pressure from AI data centers.
The company’s data claims that consumer PC memory costs are up about 70% over all of 2025, with vendors even starting to warn customers of price hikes toward the end of the year. And even more worrying, analysts were already forecasting a further increase of 50% in the first quarter of 2026.
As memory makers prioritize high-margin server DRAMs and HBMs for data centers, production of consumer DDR memory for PCs has suffered and supply is not meeting demand. SSD costs have also increased by 40% in 2025.
PC prices will increase, shipping volumes will decrease
Omdia expects memory shortages to impact PC sales in 2026, with OEMs likely focusing on high-end devices due to rising component costs. Mid-tier and lower configurations could also end up shipping with less RAM or storage to counter the limited supply.
“Given supply tightening in 2026, the industry is emphasizing high-end SKUs and lighter mid-to-low-tier configurations to protect margins,” explained senior analyst Ben Yeh.
Trendforce also released a similar report in late 2025, forecasting a 5.4% year-over-year decline in global laptop shipments for 2026. Laptops accounted for about four in five (79%) of all PC shipments in 2025 by Omdia, with PCs taking up a much smaller market share.
Additionally, a 10.1% drop in laptop shipments could occur if conditions deteriorate, Trendforce warns.
IDC also agreed that shipments could decline this year. “IDC expects the PC market to look very different in 12 months given how quickly the memory situation is changing,” explained vice president of research Jean Philippe Bouchard.
Market forecasts have not been released by IDC, but the company’s analysts have warned of extreme volatility, lower average memory configurations and further price increases.
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