The National Football League (Nfl) The season begins Thursday evening and the bettors rush to the prediction market based on cryptography to place their leaves at the start of the season.
Already, more than $ 600,000 has been bet on the opening between the Cowboys of the Eagles of Philadelphia and Dallas, a sum which overshadows the £ 150,000 approximately ($ 201,000) Caught by the largest exchange in Europe in Europe, Betfair. There is only one rounding error out of the $ 100 million or more in bets generally observed in individual football matches via traditional channels.
From pork skin to
Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan said on Wednesday that the company had received the (CFTC)Giving it the ability to operate in the 50 states, including those like Texas where traditional sports betting is prohibited.
The regulatory breakthrough has followed a marketing campaign on largely seen social networks that has teased: “legal football trading arrives in the 50 states this fall”.
Timing could not be more critical. According to Dune Analytics, the volumes of Polymarket fell in 2025, going from a record of $ 2 billion in November during the Freeting of the US elections at only $ 664 million in August.
Although expected, the drop illustrates Polymarket’s dependence on political cycles. During the elections, the platform has become a media barometer, with markets often cited alongside traditional surveys to follow the performance of candidates.
Once the votes are counted, the volumes have cooled and attention moved to new, sometimes controversial markets, such as the bets on the question of whether the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy would put on a suit before July.
A market of $ 107 billion invites
The pivot to sport occurs while sports betting remains a mastodon industry, of an estimated value at $ 107 billion in 2024.
The first indicators suggest that Polymarket could capture a significant part: this year only, users have bet more than $ 55 million in the MLB World Series markets, alluding to the Paris volumes in the NFL could accelerate as the season matures.
The NFL is particularly popular. Not only does he draw the largest fans of America fans, but that also feeds Paris peaks week after week thanks to fantastic leagues, sports books and now, prediction markets.
Ready to face the industry
With the green light from the CFTC and a launch of the NFL, generating volumes that compete with traditional bookmakers, Polymarket is positioned to face the wider sports betting industry.
Its model remains distinct: instead of betting against a house, users exchange contracts with each other, prices moving like real -time markets. This structure makes the functioning of Polymarket less as a sports book and more as an exchange, where the chances are defined by the collective actions of traders rather than ratings.
This difference could be disruptive. By mixing the prediction markets with traditional sports, Polymarket does not only enter an industry of $ 100 billion, it changes the way sports fans can speculate on the results.
