Polymarket Traders Bet on Iran Ceasefire Even as Oil Shock Concerns Linger: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)

The war in Iran has single-handedly altered the macroeconomic environment for those taking risks in financial markets, and some participants are betting it could end soon.

Onchain data tracked by Polymarket tracker PolymarketHistory shows 10 wallets came to life on Sunday, betting a total of $160,000 on a ceasefire by the end of March and eyeing a potential payout of more than $1,000,000. The wallets have no prior trading history and were created at the same time, raising suspicions of possible insider positioning on the outcome.

Either way, if the war ends, markets, including cryptocurrencies, could see a relief rally.

But for now, the conflict is in its fourth week and is keeping valuations under pressure. Bitcoin BTC$68,358.29 was holding below $69,000 at the time of writing, maintaining weekend losses. Ether fell to $2,030, its sixth decline in seven days. XRP (XRP), Solana (SOL), DOGE$0.09045 and others were also under pressure, while a few privacy tokens such as NIGHT and XMR stood out with gains of over 3% in the last 24 hours.

“The market is primarily interested in one theme: geopolitical inflation. The weekend saw a new phase of escalation, including US pressure on Iran over the Strait of Hormuz and new threats to regional energy infrastructure. This kept oil risk high and left investors anticipating a longer period of tight financial conditions,” Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, said in an email.

“Bitcoin still has the cleanest value capture profile in crypto for this band: scarce asset, improved institutional plumbing, and relative flow leadership compared to the rest of the complex,” he said.

However, market flows have yet to validate this view. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows for the third straight day on Friday, alongside significant selling by large holders, or whales.

Ether has also seen significant selloffs. A whale holding over 130,000 ETH sold 5,000 ETH ($10.31 million) at $2,063, according to Lookonchain.

In traditional markets, U.S. Treasury yields rose to multi-month highs, signaling tighter financial conditions ahead, while futures linked to the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 hit their lowest levels since early November. Stay vigilant!

Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today

What to watch

For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

• Cryptocurrency
• Macro
  • March 23, 10:00 a.m.: US construction spending for January est. 0.1% (previous 0.3%).
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • March 23: BTCS Inc. (BTCS), post-market, $0.01

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

• Votes and calls on governance
  • Aave DAO votes to deploy Aave V4 with an initial security-focused configuration, conservative risk parameters, and a modular hub-and-spoke architecture. Voting closes on March 23.
  • Floki DAO votes to rank entries in Floki’s third guerrilla marketing competition. Voting closes on March 23.
• Unlocks
• Token Launches
  • March 23: Official launch of HTX DAO (HTX) staking

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

Market movements

• BTC is up 3.01% from 4 p.m. ET Sunday at $71,044.86 (24 hours: +3.56%)
• ETH is up 5.07% at $2,168.32 (24 hours: +4.20%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 3.05% at 2,030.41 (24 hours: 2.56%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 13 Basis Points to 2.83%
• BTC funding rate is -0.0017% (-1.8177% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.45% at 104.30
• Gold futures are down 7.27% at $4,238.30
• Silver futures are down 8.18% at $63.69
• The Nikkei 225 closed down 3.48% at 51,515.49
• Hang Seng closed 3.54% lower at 24,382.47
• The FTSE 100 is down 2.03% at 9,716.51
• The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 2.01% at 5,390.70
• DJIA closed Friday down 0.96% at 45,577.47
• The S&P 500 closed down 1.51% at 6,506.48
• The Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.01% at 21,647.61
• The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 1.69% at 31,317.41
• The S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.15% at 3,150.00
• The 10-year US Treasury yield is up 11 basis points to 4.39%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 1.03% at 6,626.75
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.54% at 24,231
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 1.15% at 46,147

Bitcoin Statistics

• BTC dominance: 58.89% (0.52%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02989 (-1.24%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 963 EH/s
• Hash price (spot): $32.30
• Total fees: 2.07 BTC / $142,462
• Open Interest on CME Futures: 116,195 BTC
• BTC valued in gold: 16 oz.
• Market capitalization BTC vs gold: 4.58%

Technical analysis

• The chart shows daily fluctuations in Bitcoin’s 30-day implied (expected) volatility index, BVIV, since October.
• BVIV has rebounded to 59%, up from 53% on Wednesday, and further gains may be ahead.
• Indeed, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is sitting well above the 200-day SMA and trending north. This shows that the short-term trend is upward.
• Increased volatility is generally a characteristic of a bear market.

Crypto Stocks

• Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Friday at $197.50 (-2.67%), -2.78% at $192 in pre-market
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.72 (-1.57%), -3.19% at $20.06
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.46 (-8.24%), -3.07% at $8.20
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $13.38 (-5.37%), -4.33% at $12.80
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.81 (-4.07%), -2.09% at $15.48
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.40 (-4.37%), -3.19% at $9.10
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $7.38 (-4.53%)
• CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): Closed at $37.68 (-3.63%)
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $126.03 (-1.79%), -4.36% at $120.54
• Bull (BLSH): closed at $37.97 (-4.12%), -4.40% at $36.30

Crypto Cash Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $135.66 (-1.87%), -2.70% at $132.00
• Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.40 (-3.65%), -4.46% at $7.07
• Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $10.02 (-2.34%), -3.79% at $9.64
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.06 (-0.93%), -6.59% at $0.99
• Lite Strategy (LITS): Closed at $1.17

ETF Feed

Spot BTC ETF

• Daily net flows: -$52 million
• Cumulative net flows: $56.21 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

ETH Spot ETF

• Daily net flows: -$42 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.76 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.69 million

Source: Farside Investors

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