By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are taking a breather ahead of today’s Federal Reserve rate decision, which could confirm that the interest rate environment is increasingly less favorable.
The central bank is widely expected to keep the benchmark borrowing cost unchanged in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, with emphasis on growth and inflation projections as well as Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments at the post-meeting news conference.
“For investors, the key question is whether the dot chart is moving toward fewer cuts and whether Powell highlights the danger of easing financial conditions too quickly,” said Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank, referring to the chart showing where policymakers expect interest rates to be at the end of the year. “Either of these developments would reinforce the ‘higher for longer’ bias and tighten financial conditions at the margin.”
According to Dori, Bitcoin price is at a critical juncture, where repeated failures to stay above $75,000 signal caution and mean reversion behavior. If the Fed sounds the alarm on the inflationary impact of the Iran war-related oil shock and reinforces expectations of slower or delayed rate cuts, then BTC would likely stay below $75,000.
“A more hawkish stance could keep Bitcoin capped below 75,000 and prolong the current consolidation phase,” he noted.
Singapore-based QCP Capital said markets had given up on easing expectations as rising oil prices complicate the case for cutting interest rates even as growth and employment data weakens. This leaves the rate environment less favorable for crypto.
Bitcoin’s stalled rally comes despite renewed institutional appetite for spot ETFs and regulatory clarity from the SEC and CFTC.
The broader market continues to reflect the largest cryptocurrency. The CoinDesk 20 Index remained largely stable over the past 24 hours, alongside similar action in Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), Solana (SOL), and other majors. Smaller coins such as SIREN, M and KAS, however, gained around 10% each.
In traditional markets, futures linked to the S&P 500 index rose 0.5%, signaling the extension of a two-day rally. Meanwhile, the dollar index returned to 99.50 from Friday’s high above 100, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.17% from 4.30%. Taken together, these movements demonstrate a persistent sense of risk orientation. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- Macro
- March 18, 8:30 a.m. ET: US PPI MoM for February est. 0.3% (previous 0.5%); Basic monthly PPI estimate (previous 0.8%)
- March 18, 8:30 a.m.: US one-year PPI for February est. 3.7% (previous 3.6%); Estimated YoY core PPI at 3.2% (previous 3.6%)
- March 18, 9:45 a.m.: Bank of Canada decision on interest rates estimated at 2.25% (previously 2.25%)
- March 18, 10:00 a.m.: US factory orders in January (previous -0.7%)
- March 18, 2:00 p.m.: Federal Reserve decision on interest rates estimated at 3.50%-3.75% (previously 3.50%-3.75%); FOMC Economic Projections
- March 18, 2:30 p.m.: press conference by the President of the Fed
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 18: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market, -$0.03
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- March 18: Jupiter (JUP) will hold its weekly Planetary Call community session with updates from the team.
- March 18: head of marketing and public relations to discuss ecosystem updates.
- WalletConnect Network is voting on allocating 50 million WCT tokens as dedicated rewards budget for WalletConnect Pay in 2026. Voting closes on March 18.
- ENS votes on a one-time transfer of 900,000 USDC from the ENS Endowment to wallet.ensdao.eth to cover a shortfall in stream payments owed to ENS Labs. Voting closes on March 18.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
- March 18: Katana (KAT) will be listed on Binance, MEXC, KuCoin and others.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 0.73% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $73,825.38 (24 hours: +0.11%)
- ETH is down 0.44% at $2,307.45 (24 hours: -0.33%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 0.78% at 2,148.73 (24 hours: -0.27%)
- Ether CESR composite staking rate is down 6 basis points to 2.75%
- BTC funding rate is -0.0069% (-7.5643% annualized) on Binance
- The DXY is unchanged at 99.56
- Gold futures are down 0.10% at $4,996.20
- Silver futures are up 0.65% at $80.05
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 2.87% at 55,239.40
- Hang Seng closed 0.61% higher at 26,025.42
- The FTSE 100 is up 0.29% at 10,433.60
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.02% at 5,828.33
- DJIA closed Tuesday up 0.10% at 46,993.26
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.25% at 6,716.09
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.47% at 22,479.53
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 0.16% at 32,929.09
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed down 3.50% at 3,459.11
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is down 2 basis points at 4.20%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 1.30% at 6,809.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 1.57% at 25,184.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 1.18% at 47,595.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.11 (0.15%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03139 (0.1%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 919 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $32.37
- Total fees: 3.08 BTC / $228,857
- CME Futures Open Interest: 115,080 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 14.9 ounces.
- BTC vs. gold market capitalization: 4.93%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows the number of BTC/USD long positions, or bullish bets, on Bitfinex.
- Growth has stalled, with the total now at 78,470 compared to 79,115 at the start of the month.
- As counterintuitive as it may seem, past data shows that falling long positions on Bitfinex tend to be bullish for BTC, and vice versa.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Tuesday at $210.23 (+3.40%), +1.77% to $213.95 in pre-market
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $23.50 (+1.73%), +0.89% at $23.71
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.24 (+0.11%), +0.97% to $9.33
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $14.68 (+1.94%), +1.02% to $14.83
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.42 (–3.24%), +1.46% to $16.66
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.11 (+0.90%), +0.99% at $10.21
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $9.24 (–0.86%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.13 (–0.79%)
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $132.31 (+5.15%), +1.50% to $134.30
- Bull (BLSH): closed at $39.94 (+0.81%), +1.10% at $40.38
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy Inc. (MSTR): closed at $150.28 (+1.87%), +0.32% to $150.76
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closes at $11.10 (+2.21%), unchanged pre-market
- SharpLink (SBET): closed at $8.31 (+1.34%), +0.48% at $8.35
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.15 (+6.48%), -0.87% at $1.14
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.21 (–3.20%)
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flows: $199.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $56.51 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: $138.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.99 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.76 million
Source: Farside Investors
