Hello, Asia. Here’s what’s making news on the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of the top news stories during U.S. business hours and insight into market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of US markets, see Crypto Daybook Americas from CoinDesk.
A new CryptoQuant report suggests that Strategy is quietly preparing for a months-long slowdown in BTC.
This thesis comes up against the predictive bets of the markets which still believe that the company will behave as if it were 2021.
CryptoQuant highlights in its latest weekly report that Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin treasury company is undergoing a structural shift from aggressive BTC accumulation to balance sheet protection, highlighted by a separate USD reserve and language recognizing the ability to hedge or even sell in stressed conditions.
Despite this change, the chances of bitcoin sales at Polymarket remain marginal for the first quarter of the year, while expectations for small, routine purchases remain high.
Additionally, Polymarket traders still view routine MSTR purchases as a high-probability event, even though the magnitude of such purchases is decreasing.
The market only assigns a 40-45% probability of purchasing above 1,000 BTC, and the CryptoQuant report suggests that these cosmetic top-ups are becoming the norm. With monthly accumulation down more than 90% compared to last year, merchants expect small purchases that preserve brand image without affecting supply or regional liquidity.
The strategy’s average purchase size has fallen from 15,133 BTC in 2024 to 5,330 BTC this year, and with DAT inflows at their lowest level since mid-June, Bitcoin treasury companies are no longer absorbing significant supply in the current market.
Overall, slower Treasury purchases, weaker DAT inflows, and a more defensive MSTR suggest a different supply landscape for crypto in 2026.
Whether BTC can resume its upward trend will depend on new sources of demand arriving to replace the corporate accumulation that defined the last cycle.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin recovered from its morning decline to $91,800 and stabilized near $93,000, but its two-day 10% rally stalled below resistance at the 2025 annual open around $93,400.
ETFs: Ether rallied above $3,100 and hit a two-week high near $3,200 after gaining 3.5% on the day.
Gold: Gold slipped slightly just above $4,200 as traders remained cautious ahead of key US inflation data, although fresh tensions in Ukraine and a weaker outlook for the dollar could pave the way for a rebound.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific stocks were mixed on Thursday, although Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix indexes rose about 1.3% after strong U.S. jobs data boosted Wall Street and bolstered hopes of a Fed rate cut next week.
Elsewhere in crypto
- Bitcoin Miners Hunted After Stealing $1 Billion In Power From Malaysian Grid (Bloomberg)
- Growing U.S. Debt Will Drive Crypto Gains, BlackRock Says in AI Report (CoinDesk)
