By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Crypto traders are bracing for potential volatility as the crucial US nonfarm payrolls report for November is set to be released later today alongside October retail sales.
Jobs data will offer deeper insight into the extent to which the U.S. labor market is cooling, shaping expectations for the Fed’s rate cut path.
“A weaker-than-expected NFP report could reinforce the view that the U.S. economy is slowing more noticeably, thereby bolstering expectations for more aggressive monetary easing,” Linh Tran, senior market analyst at XS.com, said in an email.
Lower rates mean weak data could reignite risk-taking, which could lead to a rebound in bitcoin. and the broader crypto market, especially because the pain trade – that’s the costliest transaction for participants’ current positions – could be higher, given the continued gloomy market mood of late.
Heading into release, scheduled for 8:30 a.m., the digital asset market is holding on to Monday’s losses, with the total market cap stable around $3 trillion and bitcoin trading at nearly $86,400, down nearly 4% over 24 hours.
The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) and CoinDesk 80 (CD80) indices are both lower by more than 5%, and the CoinDesk Bitcoin Trend Indicator (BTI) suggests a significant downtrend for the fourth day in a row. The Volmex One-Day Implied Volatility Index for BTC remains stuck in recent ranges of 40-60% annualized, indicating that the market is not yet experiencing outsized moves over the next 24 hours.
BTC has been bogged down due to weaker institutional demand for alternative investment vehicles. On Monday, US-listed cash ETFs saw a net outflow of $357 million, the highest since November 20.
Additionally, the growth of stablecoins has slowed sharply, signaling a decline in new fiat flows into crypto.
“Even though absolute growth remains respectable, the deceleration in stablecoin growth rates indicates a less bullish liquidity backdrop for crypto markets than many had expected,” crypto financial services platform Matrixport said.
The delay in the US crypto market structure bill could contribute to the bearish sentiment.
In traditional markets, the Chinese yuan reached its highest level in two months, at 7.0417 per dollar. Crypto bulls have long associated periods of yuan weakness with increased capital outflows from China into cryptocurrencies. It is therefore likely that a strong yuan will have the opposite effect, although there is little evidence of a direct link between the two assets.
That said, a sustained rise in the yuan could depress the dollar index (DXY) (just as a depreciation in the yuan is said to boost the DXY), creating a tailwind for risky assets, including BTC.
Meanwhile, gold’s rise stalled, falling to $4,277 an ounce from $4,350 on Monday, just below the record price of $4,381.48 set on October 20. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains stable above 4% despite the Fed’s rate cut last week. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- Macro
- December 16, 8:15 a.m.: US ADP Weekly Job Change Previous. 4.75K.
- December 16, 8:30 a.m.: US employment data in November. Non-farm payroll Est. 40,000; Unemployment rate Est. 4.4%.
- December 16, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global (Flash) US Dec. PMI Composite (previous 54.2), Manufacturing Est. 52, East Services. 54.1.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- Moons DAO votes to elect an Ecosystem Growth Manager to manage strategic partnerships and expand the DAO’s reach. Voting closes on December 16.
- December 16: The airfield will host an X Spaces session with Nasdaq’s head of global capital.
- Unlocks
- December 16: to unlock 1.9% of its circulating supply worth $19.88 million.
- Token Launches
- December 16: launch of the Neiro Woofer Pack NFT collection in collaboration with OpeanSea.
- December 16: Dash be listed on Binance TR.
- December 16: Magma Finance (MAGMA) will be listed on Binance Alpha, Bitget and others.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 0.18% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $86,363.38 (24 hours: -3.07%)
- ETH is down 0.61% at $2,927.41 (24 hours: -6.72%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 0.19% at 2,696.69 (24 hours: -4.31%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 3 Basis Points to 2.84%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0017% (1.8615% annualized) on Binance
- The DXY is down 0.12% at 98.19
- Gold futures are down 0.66% at $4,306.80
- Silver futures are down 0.76% at $63.10
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 1.56% at 49,383.29
- Hang Seng closed 1.54% lower at 25,235.41
- The FTSE is down 0.3% at 9,722.49
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.14% at 5,744.63
- DJIA closed Monday down 0.09% at 48,416.56
- The S&P 500 closed down 0.16% at 6,816.51
- The Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.59% at 23,057.41
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 0.14% at 31,483.44
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.17% at 3,178.81
- The 10-year US Treasury yield is down 0.2 bps to 4.18%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.19% at 6,809.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.3% at 25,266.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 0.12% at 48,778.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.25% (+0.29%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03386 (-1.31%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,047 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $36.86
- Total fees: 2.78 BTC / $244,700
- CME Futures Open Interest: 122,980 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 20.3 ounces.
- BTC vs. gold market capitalization: 5.82%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows the daily price fluctuations of BTC in candlestick form.
- Monday’s candle closed below the support level of the mini-uptrend line connecting the November 21 and December 1 lows.
- The breakdown is consistent with the broader downtrend since early October and indicates the possibility of a retest of recent lows near $80,000.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Monday at $250.42 (-6.37%), -0.36% at $249.51 in pre-market
- Circle (CRCL): closed at $75.46 (-9.60%), -0.99% at $74.71
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.54 (-8.26%), -0.61% at $24.39
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $42.43 (-2.55%), -1.44% at $41.82
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $10.70 (-7.12%), -0.47% at $10.65
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $13.71 (-10.39%), -0.88% at $13.59
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.28 (-7.56%), -1.24% at $15.09
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.91 (-15.07%), -1.38% at $11.75
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $37.93 (-11.25%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $13.56 (-10.97%)
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $162.08 (-8.14%), unchanged in pre-market
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $16.03 (-10.8%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.51 (-9.51%), -0.11% at $9.50
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.04 (-9.73%), +1.96% to $2.08
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.53 (-10.53%)
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flows: -$357.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $57.53 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.31 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$224.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $12.88 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.3 million
Source: Farside Investors
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