Hello, Asia. Here’s what’s making news on the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of the top news stories during U.S. business hours and insight into market movements and analysis. For a detailed look at US markets, check out CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
QCP Capital says the market has moved beyond simple rate monitoring to a regime of full liquidity, in which central bank balance sheets and cross-border capital flows carry risk greater than the Fed’s next 25 basis points.
“Central bank purchases, dedollarization flows, and institutional portfolio hedging have become the dominant forces propelling gold higher, extending its relevance well beyond the traditional framework of hedging against inflation,” QCP Capital wrote, noting that during last weekend’s volatility, the Bitcoin-gold correlation climbed above 0.85, putting highlight the synchronized flows between the two asset classes.
Forecast markets are rallying around a steady but shallow Fed easing cycle that favors gold and digital assets over high-beta risk.
On Kalshi, traders now assign a 76% probability to exactly three rate cuts in 2025, with a total easing of 75 basis points, matching JP Morgan’s baseline scenario for a “mid-cycle, non-recessionary” trajectory. Remarks from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman this week calling for two more cuts by the end of the year reinforced that trajectory.
Bitcoin trades within the same liquidity framework.
Kalshi traders see a 51% chance of it surpassing $130,000 this year, which would mark a new all-time high, 33% for $140,000 and just 21% for $150,000, with equal chances of hitting $150,000 by mid-2026.
The market is positioning itself for a slow rally, not a speculative surge, as easing expectations gradually trickle down to real yields and dollar liquidity. Glassnode data shows a dense group of call positions at the $130,000 strike price, indicating that option flows could amplify short-term moves but also anchor resistance near that level.
The macroeconomic and on-chain signals are pointing in the same direction: This is not an adrenaline-driven bull market, but a slow, liquidity-fueled advance that could continue to push assets higher even without an aggressive pivot from the Fed.
That is, if the market can survive another Truth Social release.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin is trading above $110,500, down 2%, under pressure from renewed US-China trade tensions and concerns over global risk, while analysts warn that breaking through $110,000 support could open the door to a decline between $96,500 and $100,000.
ETFs: Ethereum is changing hands around $3,900, down about 4%, as investors reduce exposure amid macroeconomic uncertainty and crypto rout concerns, while some remain optimistic that ETH could “catch up” to gold over time.
Gold: Gold is trading near $4,141.81 an ounce as safe-haven demand rises amid tensions between the United States and China and growing expectations of rate cuts in the United States.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose on Thursday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.95%, following gains on Wall Street driven by strong bank profits.
Elsewhere in crypto
- Eric Trump confirms his intention to tokenize real estate with World Liberty Financial (CoinDesk)
- “The ship has sailed”: Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse says the US will not return to a hostile crypto climate under Gensler (The Block)
- Sony also wants its own crypto bank (Decrypt)
