- The interbank rate remains in a range throughout the week.
- IMF review negotiations begin within the framework of the EFF and the RSF.
- Remittances increase from year to year, decrease from month to month.
KARACHI: The Pakistani rupee is expected to remain stable and may strengthen slightly in the near term, supported by seasonal remittances during Ramadan and ahead of Eid, News reported, citing a report released on Saturday.
The currency traded in a narrow band on the interbank market this week, closing at 279.55 per dollar on Monday and 279.47 on Friday.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) team on Wednesday began negotiations with Pakistani authorities for the third review of the $7 billion Extended Financing Facility (EFF) and the second review of the $1.1 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
Once the process is completed, Pakistan will become eligible by the end of April for around $1 billion under the EFF and an additional $200 million under the RSF.
The geopolitical situation worsened when the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran, plunging the region into new conflict.
The rupee has appreciated by around 60 paisa since the start of the year, Tresmark, a platform that provides live financial rates, said in a client note. Although this increase is modest on its own, it is more significant when considered in the broader context, according to the report.
The rupee strengthened despite several challenges, including rising geopolitical risks and US posturing in the region, escalating tensions along the western border, isolated internal security incidents, Brent crude prices trading above $72 per barrel, a steady decline in exports, a growing trade deficit, tariff pressures and a persistent inflation differential with the United States.
“Seasonal remittances around Ramadan and Eid are expected to keep the rupee at a good level in the short term,” the Tresmark report said.
“That said, most economists argue that further appreciation offers limited structural benefits, making the recent firmness somewhat counterintuitive,” it adds.
Pakistan’s remittances rose 15.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in January to $3.5 billion. However, these flows fell by 4% on a monthly basis (MoM). Remittances rose 11.3% to $23.2 billion in the first seven months of fiscal 2026.
“Premiums have improved slightly. If costs are tight, exporters should opt for futures as the outlook for the rupee continues to look stable or even marginally stronger,” he said.
According to the report, the stability of the rupee is not an isolated case. Several high-carry or reform-backed emerging currencies also held up despite geopolitical noise, including the Egyptian pound, Thai baht, South African rand, Brazilian real, Mexican peso and Indonesian rupiah.
