In today’s newsletter, Paul Veradittakit, Managing Partner at Pantera Capital, shares his 2026 predictions for crypto, tokenization of real-world assets, and AI.
Programming Note: This will be our last newsletter of 2025 — we look forward to seeing you all in 2026! We’re also curating third-party contributions for the year ahead, so get in touch if you’re a global thought leader with research to share.
A sincere thank you to all of this year’s contributors and to all of our subscribers for participating in our newsletter. We look forward to 2026 – all signs point to it being an exciting year in digital assets!
-Sarah Morton
Crypto Outlook 2026: Real-World Assets, AI Security, and the Next IPO Wave
In 2025, a U.S. administration appointed a crypto czar, created a strategic bitcoin stockpile, formed a digital assets task force, and selected a new chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) who embraces innovation. In Congress, the GENIUS Act provided a clear regulatory framework for stablecoins, facilitating a $100 billion increase in demand for stablecoins.
Coinbase became the first crypto company added to the S&P 500, nine blockchain companies had an IPO, Robinhood launched tokenized stocks, and Vanguard lifted its ban on crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
On the way to 2026.
Real World Assets (RWA) Take Off
As of December 15, 2025, the amount reached approximately 14% of the total value locked (TVL) at $16.6 billion on decentralized finance (DeFi TVL of $118 billion).
Predictions:
- Treasury bills and private credit could at least double.
- Tokenized stocks and shares could grow even faster when the “innovation exemption” planned under the SEC’s “Project Crypto” debuts.
- A surprise sector (carbon credits, mining rights or energy projects) will catch fire. This sector will likely be characterized by fragmented liquidity, global distribution and a lack of standards, which blockchain-based markets will help resolve.
AI is revolutionizing on-chain security
AI security and blockchain development tools are getting scary. Real-time fraud detection, 95% accurate Bitcoin transaction tagging, and instant smart contract debugging are here, detecting millions of blockchain vulnerabilities.
Prediction: Imagine larger shifts toward on-chain intelligence with deterministic, verifiable rules taking precedence over smart contract-based governance. The application will analyze code in near real-time, instantly detect logic bugs and exploits, and provide immediate debugging feedback. The next big unicorn will be an innovative on-chain security company that grows the security game 100x.
Prediction markets are acquisition targets
With $28 billion traded in the first 10 months of 2025, prediction markets are consolidating around institutional infrastructure. We hit an ATH the week of October 20 at $2.3 billion.
Prediction: A billion-dollar-plus industry buyout that won’t involve Polymarket or Kalshi. Winning platforms will build liquidity rails under the hood with built-in market discovery insights that show where money is hiding and why. Forget shiny new buttons. It’s about effortlessly giving superpowers to users: instant access to hidden pools, smarter routing, and predictive order flow.
Sports-focused platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel have become mainstream, partnering with media outlets for real-time odds distribution. New entries like NoVig, focused on sports, will expand their presence vertically, and new startups will emerge in the APAC region, as it is a region to watch.
AI becomes your personal crypto co-pilot
The use of consumer AI platforms will increase as systems mature, delivering hyper-personalized experiences that meet personalized expectations. Seamless integration makes advanced AI feel effortless, taking its use from clunky to instantaneous.
Prediction: Platforms like Surf.ai will engage people ranging from crypto-curious individuals to active traders in 2026 via intuitive advanced AI models, proprietary crypto datasets, and multi-step workflow agents. I believe sophisticated technology and accessible design position Surf as the go-to crypto research tool, providing instant, on-chain-backed market information four times faster than generic options, with other such platforms also emerging.
The banking titans prepare: the G7-backed stablecoin is taking shape
A group of 10 major banks is in the early stages of exploring a consortium stablecoin issuance linked to G7 currencies. Financial institutions are considering whether an industry-wide stablecoin would be likely to offer individuals and institutions the benefits of digital currencies in a compliant and risk-managed manner. Meanwhile, a group of ten European banks are studying the issuance of a stablecoin pegged to the euro.
Prediction: A consortium of major banks will release their own stablecoin (whether these pilots come to fruition in 2026 or another consortium does).
Confidentiality, payments, perpetuals: the institutional trio
Privacy technology is booming in institutional use with the transparency-secrecy combination of Zama, Canton and other protocols, although retail use is not finding traction or scalability. Stablecoins now stand at $310 billion, a market capitalization more than doubling since 2023, expanding for 25 consecutive months. Perpetual swaps already account for around 78% of crypto derivatives volume, and the gap continues to widen between pers and spot options.
Prediction: When it comes to privacy, the gap between institutions and retail will widen in 2026. Stablecoins will have a path to over $2 trillion in the long term, reaching at least $500 billion next year, and the perpetual momentum will continue in 2026.
The biggest cryptocurrency IPO year ever
By 2025, there were already 335 IPOs in the United States, a 55% increase from 2024; many of them were crypto-friendly, including nine blockchain IPOs. This includes crypto-natives like Circle Internet Group with a launch date of May 27, 2025 and crypto-natives like Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACS); Bitcoin Infrastructure Acquisition Corp, for example, launched on December 2, 2025.
Prediction: 2026 will be an even bigger year for public listings of digital assets. Coinbase reports that 76% of companies plan to add tokenized assets in 2026, with some considering more than 5% of their entire portfolio. Morpho serves as an example protocol with its TVL of $8.6 billion as of November 2025.
The macro institutional vision
As of December 15, 17.867% of bitcoin holdings are now in the hands of publicly traded and private companies, ETFs, and countries. By 2026, crypto will be integrated into mainstream platforms, improve financial rails and challenge current incumbents.
Prediction: 2026 won’t be about hype or memes. It will be about consolidation, real compliance and institutional capital movements, driven by the liquidity of public markets.
Read the full article here
– Paul Veradittakit, Managing Partner, Pantera Capital
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