Bitcoin The February 5 collapse will go down as one of the most historic sell-offs on record. Below are the key statistics that help define the event and indicate how far further it could fall.
The price of bitcoin started the day near $73,000 and fell to a low around $62,000, a drop – or, as some market participants call it, a candle – of more than $10,000. The day’s 14% decline was the largest one-day decline since November 2022, when crypto exchange FTX imploded.
The Fear and Greed Index fell to single digits, a level seen only a handful of times in Bitcoin’s 17-year history. At the same time, bitcoin was the third most oversold on record on the RSI, an indicator that measures the speed and direction of price movements.
Offer in result
Loss circulating supply, that is, the number of coins that were last moved at prices above the market price, jumped to almost 10 million BTC. This is the fourth highest level on record, comparable to the bear market lows of 2015, 2019 and 2022.
Another measure, the amount of circulating supply from long-term holders who are at a loss, reached 4.6 million BTC. At the lows of previous bear markets, the figure exceeded 5 million BTC, suggesting that this metric is approaching, but has not yet fully reached, previous extremes.
Bid-to-profit and bid-to-loss have nearly converged, a condition that has historically aligned with the bottom of major market declines. Currently, around 10 million BTC is in profit and 10 million BTC is in loss.
While no one knows for sure if bitcoin has hit bottom, history suggests it’s probably close, especially since bitcoin is already recovering toward $68,000.
Nonetheless, market participants may be waiting for Bitcoin to test its 200-week moving average, currently near $58,011.
