Do not be fooled by the reversal of the Wednesday market, which saw the S&P 500 Benchmark climb the most since 2008 and the significant Bitcoin (BTC) gains and the wider cryptography market, as represented by the Coindesk 20 index (CD20).
The rally, triggered by the announcement by President Donald Trump of a 90 -day break on prices, fueled the optimism of the social media of an imminent imminent bull in the two actions and the crypto. This can be too optimistic, according to analysts from Goldman Sachs and elsewhere, who note that the double -digit action price rallies in several weeks are quite common even during the largest bears markets.
“In most bear markets, given the positioning of light, marginal changes in these variables can have amplified effects on the markets. Consequently, the bear market gatherings are quite common,” said the Goldman strategy team led by Peter Oppenheimer in a Tuesday note entitled “Anatomy of the bear market.
There have been 19 global gatherings of the bear market since the 1980s and on average, “they lasted 44 days and the world MSCI AC The yield is 10% to 15%, ”said the note.
“One of the worst bear markets in history has seen about half a dozen two-digit rallies before everything is said and finished,” said Callum Thomas, founder and manager of research at Topdown Charts, on X referring to the 1930s. “Is the 90-day rebound a BMR?”
Whether the recent rebound means the start of a new bull or simply a bear market rally will not become clear until later. However, certain characteristics of a sustained background mentioned by Goldman, such as attractive assessments, extreme negative positioning, political intervention and a slowdown in macroeconomic deterioration, are not yet obvious.
It is unlikely that the federal reserve does not offer the support of so early, while Trump only interrupted the prices for 90 days, which means that trade tensions could again degenerate. In addition, prices on China continue to increase and if that is not enough, the actions are not yet inexpensive.
