A fallacious debate has resurfaced, pleading for dam rivers. This is more for political consumption to divert public anger against the failure of governance on the recent unprecedented flood in the three main rivers of Punjab (Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej).
Our short collective memory, associated with land seizures for personal purposes by the powerful elite, low regulations and collusion among the powerful political elites, bureaucracy and land promoters, allowed uncontrolled human establishments along the roads of the natural river.
In addition, in the past six to seven decades, public infrastructure planning has largely ignored historical water routes, aggravating the extent of today’s disaster.
Similar factors caused damage during the 2010, 2022 floods and now in 2025. Even small lessons in the 2010 disaster could have very much preventing current damage. Fifteen years later, however, these lessons fell into the ears of a deaf and blind eyes. Instead of long -term planning, we continue to see ad hoc measures, false solutions, poor forecasts and temporary actions.
Each disaster has followed the same scheme: in the next day, a wave of discussions emerges – as it did in the Sindh after 2010. Studies are ordered, reports are produced and many deliberations are organized, but no significant long -term action is never taken. Instead, a familiar refrain reappears, revival of the debate on the diversion on the rivers.
In the very interesting book “ The Black Swan: The Impact of the Improbable Hight ”, Nassim Nicholas Taleb maintains that rare, unpredictable and high impact events – called black swans – shape history and daily life much more than regular and predictable events.
Humans are wired to underestimate the probability and consequences of these events due to cognitive bias, surpassing models and the tendency to search for models of chance.
The 2010, 2022 and now 2025 floods are real swan events for Pakistan.
However, these events have not shaped our history. However, our persistent bias towards a single solution – rivers jumping – prevents us from thinking beyond this narrow horizon. In the process, water experts, engineers and decision -makers have almost forgotten two certainties: the rivers that run to dry will eventually come back and hill torrents will recover their paths. Sudden floods and floods of 2025 are a brutal reminder that a black swan can strike even after a century of calm.
The black swan warns against the prediction. Over the past decade, many reports have predicted Pakistan as a country of water scorce by dividing average annual water by a rapidly growing population. As the population increases, the number per person still decreases. This neglects key factors, including seasonal variability, storage capacity, groundwater losses and management. He also neglects that the last years have been extraordinarily humid.
Recent high speeds occurred in the Rivers Chenab, delighted and Sutlej. Their geography does not allow these rivers to be raised in the simple areas of Punjab; Therefore, this declaration is completely out of context.
Here are some of my submissions for the way to follow:
This unprecedented situation requires long -term ready and long -term solutions; We cannot recycle the same arguments a decade and a half after the 2010 floods. Without doubt, Pakistan must increase its water storage capacity to meet the seasonal variability of flows and maintain its agriculture. But large dams are not the only answer – or for storage, for the control of floods.
The experience of many places shows it several times; With erratic precipitation, focused on climate change, dam operations can even become more risky. The geography of Chenab, delighted and Sutlej does not allow the song of these rivers in the plains of Punjab. Thus, the barrage jumping debate is completely out of context. Here are my proposals for the path to follow: first, allow rivers to flow along their historical and natural roads so that they can provide sediments rich in nutrients and enrich the exhausted soil after decades of agriculture.
This will inject free fertilizers into areas that water reaches. We must not take place too much the sliding jumping rivers as a miracle solution; It will not fix the encroachment of floodplays and the failure of urban drainage or the hill torrent bursts. As far as possible, restore the bypass of the floods through the channels, let the rivers propagate safely without damaging the establishments.
Two, launch an investigation and mapping of existing human establishments in the floodplates of all the main rivers and along the Hill -Torrent roads – even if they have been dry for a century. In the era of satellites, this is not a major challenge. Prepare the cards and classify the areas in different areas using modeling based on the flows of the Historic River from Pic at low, while incorporating the unprecedented extremes and focused on the climate of today.
Move people who are in red areas. Strictly prohibit new colonies in flood plain areas.
Three, after the 2010 floods, the Sindh government conducted a study to identify natural waterways; These were clearly identified and mapped, but the encroachments have not been completely deleted for political reasons.
Other provinces have not learned; So many colonies in Punjab have been flooded this time. Bold political decisions are now necessary to eliminate all encroachments – once and for all, but systematically and fairly.
Four, where are possible, develop small dams and dikes for surface storage or as a temporary barrier to recharge groundwater, especially in Punjab, where many areas are on freshwater aquifers. Although the energy required to pump groundwater is high, the increasing solar energy capacity of Pakistan and other technological solutions can take up this challenge.
Five, invest in better forecast and early warning. Regional cooperation and transparent data sharing are essential, in particular on cross -border rivers. Build the forecasting capacity in several places along the various river basins and install modern equipment such as telemetry, rain / river gauges and meteorological radar) at dams and key dams to monitor flows in real time and broadcast clear alerts in time.
Effective management of the cross -border river requires renewed accent on regional policy. Disasters such as the flood of 2025 do not recognize national borders, making regional peace and essential cooperation.
Warning: The points of view expressed in this play are the own writers and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of PK Press Club.TV.
The writer is an environmental activist and human rights based in Islamabad.
Originally published in the news
