This is an analyst’s analyst’s analyst position and the authorized market technician Omkar Godbole.
As the last quarter of 2025 approaches, the following key graphs provide valuable information to help cryptographic merchants to sail in the evolving market landscape.
Haussier seasonality
Seasonal trends suggest an optimistic perspective for both for both And The two main cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.
Since 2013, Delivered an average yield of 85% in the last quarter, according to Correglass data, which makes the fourth quarter historically the strongest period for bulls.
November is distinguished as the most optimistic month, with an average gain of 46%, followed by October, which generally sees an increase of 21%.
Also tends to perform well in the last three months of the year, although its strongest historical yields have been in the first quarter since its creation.
SMA support of 50 weeks of BTC
The Bitcoin price dropped by 5% this week, in accordance with the lower technical signals and seems to be losses at the end of August nearly $ 107,300. If the bulls fail to defend this, the emphasis will be put on the simple mobile average of 200 days at $ 104,200.
The drop in current prices, combined with the historic Bitcoin model of Pic from around 16 to 18 months after an event in half, can frighten the bulls.
However, these concerns can be premature as long as prices remain superior to the 50 -week simple mobile average (SMA). This mobile average has always acted as a level of support, marking the end of corrective price declines during the current bull race which started at the beginning of 2023.
Traders should therefore look closely with the 50 -week SMA, which is currently positioned around $ 98,900, as a key level for a larger market management.
XRP / BTC compression
XRP, often called the “American government’s medal piece” by companies like Arca, jumped 32% this year. However, despite this solid rally, the cryptocurrency focused on payments remains confined to an extended side negotiation range against Bitcoin (XRP / BTC), showing a limited relative force.
The XRP / BTC pair has been confined to a narrow trading range since the beginning of 2021, which causes more than four years of low volatility compression.
A recent price action near the upper limit of this channel suggests that the bulls are gradually taking control. An escape from such prolonged consolidation could trigger a powerful rally in XRP compared to BTC, because the accumulated energy of this compression is released.
Now let’s turn to cards that call for caution.
Breakout in Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF (SMST)
The FNB anti -back strategy effect (SMST), which aims to provide daily investment results of -200%, or less 2x, the daily variation in percentage of the Bitcoin Strategy Action (MSTR), flashes up bulls.
The price of the ETF has reached a five -month summit of $ 35.65, forming what seems to be a head and reverse shoulder motif, characterized by a prominent hollow (the head) flanked by two almost equal hollows (shoulders).
This scheme often signals a potential optimistic inversion, which suggests that the FNB could prepare for a significant upward movement.
In other words, it flashes a lower BTC signal and the strategy, which is the largest BTC carrier on the stock market with a room hiding place of 639,835 BTC.
The double bottom of the dollar index
Last week, I discussed the resilience of the decrease in post-egg rates of the dollar as a potential front wind for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
The dollar index has since gained ground, establishing a double background at around 96.30. It is a sign that the bulls managed to establish the path of the slightest resistance on the upper side.
A continuous step beyond 100.26, the summit of provisional recovery between the twins around 96.30, would confirm the so-called double-bottomed escape, opening the door for a move to 104.00.
Beware of the failure of the model of less than 96.00, as this could lead to an increase in risks on the financial markets.
NVDA Topping?
NVIDIA (NVDA), the largest company listed in the world by market value, and a Belwether for risk assets, continues to flirt with the upper end of the extended chain identified in June 2024 and November 2024 Highs and lows struck in August 2024 and April 2025.
The rally has been at a standstill on the higher trend line since the end of July in a sign of bullish exhaustion. If it decreases from here, this could point out the start of a risk period in the global markets, including cryptocurrencies.
