Miami Beach — When Shayne Coplan started Polymarket, he didn’t have a team or major funding. What he had was a blockchain, a strong conviction, and a laptop.
“I’m a solo founder. I literally started with almost no money,” Coplan said during a conversation at the Cantor Fitzgerald Crypto, AI and Blockchain Conference in Miami Beach on Wednesday. “The cool thing about blockchains is that they allow a kid in their bedroom – or in their bathroom or office or whatever – to innovate and experiment with financial applications.”
He credits the open nature of blockchain with allowing him to create a functioning global marketplace without traditional institutional support. “The barrier to entry for building something innovative in traditional fintech is prohibitive for anyone who is trying to build something new, who is young and doesn’t have a lot of capital and doesn’t have a lot of time,” he said.
Polymarket, launched in 2020, allows users to trade on the likelihood of real-world outcomes — from elections to Fed decisions to celebrity gossip. The platform does not operate on survey data or expert predictions. Instead, it lets the market determine the probabilities.
“When people follow an election or an election that has implications for their livelihoods, they want to know who is going to win,” Coplan said. “Polls are fine, they’re a random assortment of people… but they consistently lean one way or the other. It’s just noise.”
He believes that markets offer something more honest: a price supported by conviction and risk.
“We have this cycle where every time there’s a big election, everyone rushes to Polymarket, everyone checks. Then everyone comes in and concocts a conspiracy theory about why it’s not accurate,” he said. “If Cuomo is trading at five cents to make $1…if it’s actually worth 40 or 50 cents and it’s trading at five cents, you should buy it. You should put your money where your mouth is.”
Every transaction on Polymarket is peer-to-peer and prices reflect collective belief. “It doesn’t depend on the amount of money that was allocated to each candidate,” Coplan explained. “At any given time there are stocks yes…and if you look at the order book there are bids and asks.
Whatever the midpoint is, that’s the probability. This is the present value of earning $1 if it’s right.
Beyond politics, Coplan sees broader potential: prediction markets as decision-making tools, even in public policy.
“You can say how likely is Cuomo to win if Sliwa doesn’t give up, and how likely is he to win if he gives up? he said. “From markets, if you structure them correctly, you can contribute to decision-making in society on an unprecedented scale. »
Coplan also believes that Polymarket can compete with traditional betting platforms by offering something that traditional sportsbooks cannot: fairness.
“If you bet or negotiate the outcome of a game… there’s a monopoly on prices. You’re trading against the house every time,” he said. “They can set whatever prices they want. If you make money, they can ban you. They can profile you and offer you worse prices or cap you.”
“This is America. You see something inefficient and rigged to the detriment of the consumer – when it’s a financial market, but it’s positioned as an entertainment product designed for you to lose – you can’t complain when financial market alternatives present themselves.”
Coplan envisions Polymarket eventually playing a role in industries like insurance, where consumers often face bundled services and high premiums.
“Most of the time, if you’re licensing or trying to protect yourself against some sort of exotic risk, you’re dealing with a company that has a sales team, a risk department…you usually end up paying really bad prices,” he said. “What’s great about Polymarket is that you can see people creating a Polymarket for the same type of risk…people who are pricing risks can provide liquidity. People who are good at sales can enable them to hedge those risks.”
He also discussed the role AI agents could soon play in commercial markets. “You see a lot of people experimenting with these AI agents that can gauge sentiment, monitor the news and basically form their own opinions… When they see a valuation error, they can try to correct the market,” he said. “Even if there is very little liquidity, or a small liquidity subsidy, these agents will leave, and people will compete to build the most accurate agents.”
Coplan said the long tail of niche markets – anything related to uncertainty – is where much of Polymarket’s potential lies. “Will it generate a lot of volume? No. But will it unlock a new news format? Yes,” he said. “Polymarket odds – the percentage probability of something – could be extended to a much wider range of opportunities.”
As Polymarket prepares to expand its presence in the United States and onboard new users via a beta exchange, Coplan remains focused on its goal of staying ahead of traditional institutions and creating a platform that delivers on the early promise of blockchain.
“We’re just trying to make the best product,” he said. “Something people like to use, where your opinion actually matters.”
