Bitcoin
Is negotiating over $ 100,000, and investors, subject to a recence bias, could quickly assume that this event will take place as it did in December-Janvier, when the Élan Taurus is upholstep, the prices falling quickly in six figures, finally falling as low as $ 75,000.
However, according to the following six graphics, the Bitcoin market now seems more solid than in December-January, suggesting a higher probability of a continuous movement.
Financial conditions: (Dxy, 10y, 30y give VS BTC)
Financial conditions refer to various economic variables, in particular interest rates, inflation, availability of credit and market liquidity. These are influenced by the yield of reference government obligations, the yield of the Treasury to American 10 years, the exchange rate in dollars and other factors.
Stricutic financial conditions disincity risk taking on the financial markets and the economy, while the easier conditions have the opposite effect.
During the drafting, the financial conditions, represented by the yield at 10 years and the dollar index, seem much easier than in January, promoting a higher BTC sustained decision.
At the time of the press, the dollar index, which measures the value of the greenback compared to the main currencies, was 99.60, down 9% compared to the summits greater than 109.00 in January. The yield on the US Treasury Treasury at 10 years was 4.52%, down 30 base points against the summit of 4.8% in January.
The 30 -year yield increased above 5%, revisiting the levels observed in January, but is largely considered positive for bitcoin and gold.
More dry powder
The combined market capitalization of the two main Stablecoins PEGGED, USDT and USDC, has reached a record summit of $ 151 billion. It is almost 9% higher than the $ 139 billion medium in December-January, according to Data Source TradingView.
In other words, a larger amount of dry powder is now available for potential investments in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Paris Directional Paris
The BTC racing above from $ 75,000 in early April is characterized by institutions that mainly take up bruise -to -referee bets rather than arbitration bets.
This is obvious by booming entries in the funds negotiated in exchange for bitcoins listed by the United States (ETF) and the open interest still moderate in the CME BTC term contracts.
According to the Velo data source, the theoretical notional interest in the CME Bitcoin term contracts has increased to $ 17 billion, the highest since February 20. However, it remains well below the December summit of $ 22.79 billion.
On the contrary, cumulative entries in the 11 spot ETFs are now a record of $ 42.7 billion against $ 39.8 billion in January, according to Data Source Farside Investors.
No sign of speculative fervor
Historically, the temporary and important bitcoin peaks, including that of December-January, were characterized by a speculative fervor on the larger market, leading to a sharp increase in market assessments for non-serious tokens such as Doge and Shib.
There are no such signs now, with the combined market capitalization of Doge and Shib very below their January summits.
No sign of overheating
The Bitcoin’s perpetual term market shows the demand for increases in increases in increases, which is naturally, since BTC is negotiated near the record summits.
However, the overall positioning remains light, without any sign of excess lever accumulation or upward overheating, as evidenced by the funding rates that hover below the summits observed in December.
The graph shows the financing rates, which refer to the cost of perpetual term detention. The positive figure indicates a bias for long and the will among the bulls to pay shorts to keep their positions open. It is a sign of bullish feeling on the market.
Implicit volatility suggests calm
The Bitcoin market seems much calmer this time, with the Dol deribit index, measuring the expected or implicit volatility of 30 days, significantly lower than the levels observed in December-January and March 2024 prices prices.
The weak IV suggests that traders are not prices in the oscillations or the uncertainty of extreme prices that generally exist on an overheated market, indicating a more measured and potentially more durable rise.
