Smart money is hedging bitcoin more aggressively than ether:Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)

As the new quarter kicks off, the crypto market is sending a subtle but important signal: traders seem a little more cautious about bitcoin. BTC$68,358.78 than ether (ETH).

You can see this in the options market, where more experienced traders and institutions are hedging risk or generating additional returns. Think of options as a kind of insurance. Traders can buy protection against price declines (puts) or bet on price increases (calls), depending on their outlook.

Currently, a key metric, called risk reversal, is negative for both bitcoin and ether across different time frames. In simple terms, this means that puts, or downside protection, are more expensive than bullish bets. When traders are willing to pay more for put options, it usually signals continued fears of falling prices. This is completely normal, given the brutal downward trend in Bitcoin and Ether since October.

But this is where it gets interesting: this caution is stronger for bitcoin. Put options on Bitcoin are more expensive than those on Ether across all time frames, suggesting traders are more worried about BTC downside risk.

The difference becomes even clearer when zooming out. Longer-dated ether options, such as those expiring next March, are only slightly bearish, while the equivalent Bitcoin options carry a much higher premium for downside protection.

In short, the market is betting that ether will be relatively resilient. This would signal an upward trend change in the ether/bitcoin ratio, which has been in a downward trend since August (see technical analysis section).

Ether is up 5% in the last 24 hours, outpacing Bitcoin BTC$68,358.78XRP (XRP), solana (SOL), and the CoinDesk 20 Index. Several smaller tokens associated with quantum computing-resistant technology are up 20% or more.

Analysts said a firm break in BTC above its 50-day moving average of $68,680 would likely strengthen the bullish momentum.

In traditional markets, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell for the fourth straight day while futures linked to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose nearly 0.5%. Together, these elements indicate a sense of appetite for future risk. Stay vigilant

Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today

What to watch

For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

• Cryptocurrency
• Macro
  • April 1, 8:15 a.m.: change in ADP employment in the United States for March (previous 63,000)
  • April 1, 10:00 a.m.: US ISM manufacturing PMI index for March (previous 52.4)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

• Votes and calls on governance
  • April 1: HTX will host a live X Spaces session with World Mobile.
  • April 1: KuCoin will host a live X Spaces session with Katana.
• Unlocks
  • April 1: ISU$0.8930 to unlock 1.10% of its circulating supply worth $38.29 million.
• Token Launches
  • April 1: Orexn (OXN) enters a phased exchange listing period following the token generation event.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

Market movements

• BTC is up 0.61% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $68,622.64 (24 hours: +3.34%)
• ETH is up 1.47% at $2,136.90 (24 hours: +5.27%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 0.62% at 1,968.28 (24 hours: +3.62%)
• Ether CESR composite staking rate unchanged at 2.76%
• BTC funding rate is 0.0033% (3.5193% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.37% at 99.59
• Gold futures up 1.5% at $4,748.80
• Silver futures are down 0.69% at $74.40
• The Nikkei 225 closed up 5.24% at 53,739.68
• Hang Seng closed 2.04% higher at 25,294.03
• The FTSE is up 1.63% at 10,342.45
• The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.75% at 5,667.09
• DJIA closed Tuesday up 2.49% at 46,341.51
• The S&P 500 closed up 2.91% at 6,528.52
• The Nasdaq Composite closed up 3.83% at 21,590.63
• The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 2.61% at 32,768.04
• The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 4.26% at 3,623.86
• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is down 3.2 basis points at 4.279%.
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.33% at 6,592.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.48% at 24,030.25
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 0.36% at 46,750.00

Bitcoin Statistics

• BTC dominance: 58.72% (-0.04%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03111 (0.89%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,004 EH/s
• Hash price (spot): $32.37
• Total fees: 2.47 BTC / $166,441
• Open Interest on CME Futures: 104,900 BTC
• BTC valued in gold: 14.5 oz.
• Market capitalization BTC vs gold: 4.58%

Technical analysis

• The chart shows the daily fluctuations of the ether-bitcoin ratio in candlestick format.
• The ratio has been trending downward since August, demonstrating ether’s underperformance relative to bitcoin. This downward trend is represented by the yellow line that connects the consistent seven-month decline.
• The outlook would turn bullish if the ratio moves above this trendline. Such a move would confirm investors’ renewed preference for ether, as suggested by the options market.

Crypto Stocks

• Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Tuesday at $174.61 (+8.60%), +1.80% to $177.75 in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $95.41 (+6.12%), +2.69% at $97.98
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $18.45 (+7.58%), +1.94% to $18.81
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $35.73 (+7.39%), +0.95% at $36.07
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.16 (+4.62%), +1.35% to $8.27
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $12.36 (+4.48%), +2.35% to $12.65
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.96 (+7.55%), -0.40% at $14.90
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.51 (+4.03%), +2.12% at $8.69
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $34.82 (+7.70%), +1.81% at $35.45
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $6.50 (+4.84%), -0.92% at $6.44

Crypto Cash Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $124.80 (+2.77%), +1.48% at $126.65
• Strive (ASST): closed at $10.02 (+6.94%), +1.90% at $10.21
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.45 (+7.32%), +2.02% to $6.58
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.99 (+3.90%), +6.49% at $1.05
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.16 (+11.54%)

ETF Feed

Spot BTC ETF

• Daily net flow: $117.5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $56.09 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

ETH Spot ETF

• Daily net flow: $31.2 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.59 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.70 million

Source: Farside Investors

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