Pakistan’s Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) fell 0.77% week-on-week for the period ended January 23, 2025, marking its fourth consecutive decline.
The decrease was largely driven by significant price cuts for essential items, including tomatoes (-33%), eggs (-10%), onions (-10%) and potatoes (-7 %).
On an annual basis, the SPI recorded a modest increase of 0.5%, the smallest in almost seven years, signaling cooling inflationary pressures, according to Topline Research.
“The SPI reading is the lowest since data became available,” noted AHL Research Director Tahir Abbas.
According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), a significant week-on-week decrease was observed in the prices of tomatoes (-32.99%), eggs (-10.23%), onions (-9 .79%), potatoes (-7.37%), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG, -2.70%), pulse gram (-1.61%), chicken (-1 %), pulse puree (-0.76%) and the GUR (-0.50%).
On the other hand, the prices of several items recorded an increase, including sugar (2.93%), bananas (2.70%), garlic (0.60%), broken basmati rice (0. 47%), one kg vegetable ghee (0.33%), Pulse Moong (0.25%), cooked Daal (0.21%), IRI-6/9 Rice (0.15%) and wood heating (0.13%).
On an annual basis, the SPI showed an overall increase of 0.52%. Notable price increases were observed in women’s sandals (75.09%), potatoes (44.30%), pulse gram (37.98%), pulse moong (32.67%). %), milk powder (25.89%), beef (22.37%), one kg Vegetable Ghee (16.87%), garlic (16.28%), T1 gas charges ( 15.52%), shirt (14.83%), vegetable ghee of 2.5 kg (14.54%) and firewood (0.13%). Meanwhile, significant price reductions were recorded for onions (-51.59%), eggs (-39.15%), tomatoes (-37.43%), wheat flour (-36 .29%), Chilli Powder (-20%), Q1 Electric Charges (- – 18.11%), Pulse Masoor (-11.01%), Pulse Puree (-10.27%), broken basmati rice (-8.56%), diesel (-5.47%), LPG (-1.79%) and gasoline (-1.18%).
JS Global’s deputy head of research said the ongoing strong disinflationary trend was expected to persist, with the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) likely to fall to 2.8%, the lowest since November 2015 , due to a high base effect, despite 0.6% month- UPSICK MONHE. This will take inflation averaging 7 mfy25 to 6.7%, compared to 7 mfy24 averaging 28.7%.
