Bitcoin is around 4% higher than a week ago – good news for digital assets but bad news for the economy.
The recent negative tone of the economic data points of last week increased the expectations that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates on Wednesday, which makes the assets more risky such as actions and Bitcoin more attractive.
Let us summarize the data that support this thesis.
The most important thing, the figures for American CPIs was released on Thursday. The title rate was slightly higher than expected, inflation of the signs could be more sticky than expected.
Before that, we had Tuesday revisions to work data. The world’s largest economy has created nearly a million less jobs than those reported in the year ended March, the largest revision of the country’s history.
The figures followed the highly watched monthly report, which was published the previous Friday. The United States added only 22,000 jobs in August, unemployment of 4.3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The first unemployment requests increased from 27,000 to 263,000 – the highest since October 2021.
A higher inflation and fewer jobs are not excellent for the American economy, so it is not surprising that the word “stagflation” is starting to get back into macroeconomic comments.
In this context, Bitcoin – considered a risk asset by Wall Street – continued to grind higher, exceeding $ 116,000 on Friday and almost committed the gap of CME’s term contracts at 117,300 from August.
Not a surprise, because traders also offer the most important risks of the risks: actions. Take a look at the S&P 500 index, which closed in a record for the second day on the hope of a drop in rate.
So how should traders think of the BTC price table?
To this graphic enthusiast, the price of the prices remains constructive, with higher stockings forming from the September 107,500 background. The 200 -day mobile average has climbed to $ 102,083, while the short -term holder made the price – often used as a support on the bull markets – has reached a record of $ 109,668.
Stocks related to Bitcoin: a mixed bag
However, Bitcoin’s weekly weekly action has not helped the strategy (MSTR)The largest of Bitcoin cash companies, whose actions were almost stable for the week. His rivals worked better: Mara Holdings (Mara) 7% and XXI (Porcini) 4%.
Strategy (MSTR) A underperformed Bitcoin for the start of the start of the year and continues to hover below its mobile average at 200 days, currently $ 355. At the end of $ 326 on Thursday, he tests a level of long -term key support seen in September 2024 and April 2025.
The company’s MNAV bonus compressed at less than 1.5x when the convertible debt is taken into account and privileged actions, or around 1.3x based solely on the value of the shares.
The favorite program of shares remains stifled, with only $ 17 million operated by Strk and Strf this week, which means that most of the money program always takes place through ordinary actions. According to the company, the options are now listed and are negotiated for the four perpetual privileged actions, a development which could provide additional return on the dividend.
Haussiers catalysts for crypto stocks?
The CME’s Fedwatch tool shows that traders expect a drop in the American interest rate of 25 base points in September and estimated a total of three rate drops by the end of the year.
It is a feeling of risk of a sign could go back to growth and actions linked to cryptography, underlined by the 10 -year -old American treasury which breaks down briefly below 4% this week.
However, the dollar index (Dxy) Continue to maintain multi -year support, a potential inflection point that deserves to be watched.
