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Team USA is in a precarious position after its stunning 8-6 loss to Team Italy in its final group game Tuesday at Daikin Park: it no longer controls its own destiny in the World Baseball Classic.
Italy improved to 3-0 with the win, while the United States dropped to 3-1. While Italy and the United States both have three wins, Team Mexico is 2-1 and will face Italy on Wednesday.
If Italy beat Mexico, they would improve to 4-0 in pool play and Mexico would drop to 2-2. In this scenario, the American team would be runners-up in Pool B and would qualify with Italy for the quarterfinals.
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American right fielder Aaron Judge (99) returns to the dugout after striking out against Italy to end the ninth inning at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas, March 10, 2026. (Thomas Shea/Imagn Images)
However, if Mexico beats Italy on Wednesday, the United States, Italy and Mexico would all be 3-1. In this scenario, Team USA could end up being the odd one out. If Mexico beats Italy, it is guaranteed to move on, leaving the final spot between Team USA and Italy.
The initial tiebreaker is based on points allowed divided by defensive outs recorded in games between the three teams. Not every game is nine innings in the World Baseball Classic because there are mercy rules.
If a team wins by 15 points after five innings or 10 points after seven innings, the game ends. The mercy rule only applies to group matches and quarter-finals.
TEAM USA’S WORLD BASEBALL CLASSIC HOPES TAKE HUGE BLOW WITH ITALY Upset
Italian pitcher Greg Weissert, right, celebrates with catcher JJ D’Orazio (28) after beating the United States in a World Baseball Classic game, Tuesday, March 10, 2026, in Houston. (Ashley Landis/AP Photo)
On the other hand, additional parts can also change the calculation.
Because Mexico allowed fewer points than Italy in pool play, they are guaranteed to move on if they beat Italy on Wednesday.
If Mexico wins, the only way for the United States to advance would be for Italy to give up more than five runs in its loss, assuming the game lasts only nine innings.
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United States centerfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (4) hits a home run against Italy during the seventh inning of a World Baseball Classic game in Houston, Texas, March 10, 2026. (Ashley Landis/AP Photo)
Italy can lose and still move on if they give up four or fewer points to Mexico in defeat.
Mexico and Italy play at 7 p.m. ET on FS1, and Team USA will be watching with bated breath.
