Investment bank Jefferies said the recent surge in gold prices cannot be explained by traditional factors alone and instead points to Tether as a major new buyer.
Attestation data and on-chain activity show the stablecoin issuer has accumulated substantial bullion over the past few months, tightening supply and helping fuel the strong rally, the bank said in Thursday’s report.
The precious metal is up more than 50% this year and is currently trading around $4,080 an ounce.
Jefferies first reported interest in Tether after the company met with miners and royalty companies in Denver last fall, with investors telling the bank that Tether intended to buy about 100 tons this year. CEO Paolo Ardoino’s public comments about adding gold to reserves and raising the price by $1,000 an ounce have strengthened the case.
Analysts led by Andrew Moss estimated that Tether held at least 116 tons of gold at the end of the third quarter, including 12 tons for its XAUt currently has a market capitalization of around $1.5 billion, according to CoinMarketCap.
It is the pace of accumulation that stands out: around 26 tonnes for the third quarter alone, or around 2% of global demand, according to analysts. Even if not enough to overwhelm central bank flows, these purchases likely tightened near-term supply and boosted bullish sentiment.
Tether is expected to continue to accumulate as USDT rises and gold remains around 7% of reserves, according to the report. While Ardoino forecasts a profit of $15 billion in 2025, the bank’s analysts have calculated that even deploying half that amount in bullion could add almost 60 tonnes per year.
Tether’s planned GENIUS Act-compliant stablecoin USAT will not require gold reserves, making its long-term impact on USDT and gold demand uncertain, the report notes.
Analysts also cited Tether’s growing investments in the gold ecosystem, including more than $300 million deployed this year in royalty and streaming companies. The bank sees these stakes as further evidence of a broader strategy in the metals sector. The recent hiring of two major HSBC metals traders suggests that Tether’s gold push is accelerating rather than fading.
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