I just finished what is historically the third worst week of the year of the cryptocurrency with a 5% larger drop than the average. The week 38 closes effectively in the third quarter, which increased by around 1%, as well as September, which managed to keep flat.
Although the figures conform to the historical reputation of the period as one of the weakest seasons of the year, some catalysts could have contributed to the underperformance.
Friday, more than $ 17 billion in options expired, with the price of maximum pain – the exercise price to which option holders lose the most money and optional editors benefit the most – sitting at $ 110,000, which has acted as a gravitational center for the cash price.
A key technical factor remains the basis of the cost of the short -term holder at $ 110,775, which reflects the average acquisition price on the channel for the parts that have moved in the last six months.
Bitcoin tested this level in August and in the bull markets, it generally moves several times to this line. This year, she did not break this level less than just once: during the price crisis in April, when she fell at $ 74,500.
In zooming out, it is important to assess whether Bitcoin remains in an upward trend characterized by higher ups and higher stockings to have an idea of ​​whether the rally is durable.
Analyst Caleb Franzen stresses that Bitcoin slipped below his exponential mobile average at 100 days (EMA), the 200 -day EMA seated at $ 106,186. The lowest preceding significant was about $ 107,252 on September 1, and for the wider trend remains intact, Bitcoin must keep above this level.,
Macro background
The US economy increased at an annualized rate of 3.8% in the second quarter, well above the 3.3% estimate and the most solid performance since the second quarter of 2023. Initial unemployment requests dropped from 14,000 to 218,000, below expectations and the lowest level since mid-July. While expenditure data has been in line with market expectations. The American basic PCE price index, the preferred measure of the underlying inflation of the federal reserve which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.2% in August 2025 compared to the previous month.
The yield over 10 years of US treasury bills has rebounded on the support of 4% and is now negotiated almost 4.2%. The dollar index (DXY) continues to hover around long -term support at 98 years. Meanwhile, the metals take action, with money at around $ 45 approaching a record level of all time seen in 1980 and 2011. American actions, in the meantime, are just shy of their files.
Bitcoin remains the aberrant value at more than 10% below its peak.
Actions exposed to bitcoin
Bitcoin cash companies continue to deal with a severe compression of the multiple reference value (MNAV). The strategy (MSTR) is barely positive of the year. At one point, he dropped below $ 300, a negative yield for 2025.
The ratio between the strategy and BlackRock Ishares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) is 4.8, the lowest since October 2024, which shows how much the biggest Bitcoin cash flow company has underperformed Bitcoin in the last 12 months.
The MNAV strategy company is currently 1.44 (Friday). The value of the company presents here all the basic actions in circulation, the total notional debt and the total notional value of the perpetual privileged actions less the balance of the company.
The silver lining for MSTR is that three of the four perpetual privileged actions, STRK, STRC and STRF, all wear positive yields for life while the executive president Michael Saylor seeks to buy more BTC through these vehicles.
An increasing problem for MSTR is the lack of volatility in Bitcoin. The implicit volatility of cryptocurrency – a measure of expectation of the market for future price fluctuations – has fallen below 40, the lowest in years.
This counts because Saylor has often designed MSTR as a volatility game on Bitcoin. For comparison, the implicit volatility of MSTR is 68 years old. Its standardized standardized standard of the daily newspaper in the last year was 89%, while in the last 30 days, it fell to 49%.
For actions, greater volatility often attracts speculators, generates trading opportunities and attracts the attention of investors, so that decline acts like a headwind.
In the meantime, the fifth largest Bitcoin cash company, Metaplanet (3350), holds 25,555 BTC and still has around $ 500 million to deploy its international offer. Despite this, its share price continues to fight at 517 yen ($ 3.45), more than 70% below its top of all time.
The MNAV of Metaplanet fell to 1.12, down 8.44 in June. Its market capitalization now amounts to $ 3.94 billion compared to a Bitcoin nav of $ 2.9 billion, with an average BTC acquisition cost of $ 106,065.
