Gold (XAU) has reached its highest level since April, with additional prospects for earnings as an often overlooked factor in the treasure yield curve. This change on the bond market could also increase bitcoin .
In the past ten days, the price of gold has increased by more than 5% to $ 3,480 per ounce, which is close to the record summit of $ 3,499 set on April 22, according to tradingView data.
The rally coincides with a Caisse de Curbe de yield of the American Treasury, such as the spread between 10 years and 2 years (10y2y) Extended to 61 basic points – the highest since January 2022. Meanwhile, the gap between yields of 30 years and 2 years reached 1.30%, the widest since November 2021.
This cash register was largely driven by a faster drop in yield to 2 years, which dropped from 33 base points to 3.62% in August, compared to a lower drop of 14 points in the yield to 10 years, now to 4.23%. In terms of bond market, it is known as a “cunning of the bull”, where the prices of short -term bonds increase more sharply (yields fall) than those in the longer term. ((The prices of bonds evolve in the opposite direction of yields.)
Ole Hansen, head of the goods strategy in Saxo Bank, explained that this dynamic is positive for gold.
“For gold, lower frontal yields facilitate the opportunity cost of the holding of non -reinforcing assets. This change is particularly relevant to real asset managers, many of which have had trouble – or in some cases, it has been limited – from gold allowance, while American financing costs have been high,” said Hansen in an analysis note on Thursday.
Hansen explained that the total FNB assets supported in ingots have decreased by 800 tonnes between 2022 and 2024, while the increased rates of the Fed to combat inflation, which sent short -term yields.
Bitcoin is often compared to gold as a reserve of value, and as gold, it is considered as an asset not rendered. Neither bitcoin nor gold generates interests or dividends; Their value is mainly motivated by scarcity, demand and market perception. Thus, the reduction in two -year yield could be considered as a bull development for the BTC.
Meanwhile, the relative resilience of longer yields is attributed to the expectations of sticky inflation and other factors, which also support the optimistic case in gold and BTC.
“The US Treasury curve collapsed without surprise: the lower rates are likely to inflamm inflation further, which is bad news for obligations,” analysts told customers on Friday.
Hansen explained that a large part of the resilience relating to 10 -year yield comes from the inflation of the strands, currently at around 2.45%, and the rest represents real yield.
“”[It] Signals according to which investors require greater compensation for budgetary risks and potential political interference in monetary policy. This environment generally supports gold both as an inflation coverage and a safeguard against the problems of credibility of the policies, “noted Hansen.
The nominal yield is made up of two components: first, the inflation panel, which reflects market expectations in terms of average inflation on the maturity of the obligation. This part of the yield compensates for the loss of purchasing power due to inflation. The second component is the real yield, which represents additional compensation that buyers require beyond inflation.
The Taureau Caisse is down for stocks
Historically, minors of gold and gold were among the best performers during prolonged periods of bull in the yield curve, according to the analysis of Advisor Perspectives. Conversely, actions tend to underform in these environments.
Overall, Bitcoin finds himself in an intriguing position, given its double nature as an emerging technology which often moves with the Nasdaq, while sharing gold qualities as a reserve of value.
Read more: Red September? Bitcoin may slide at $ 100,000 after a monthly drop of 6%
