The 2024-25 economic survey, a key document before the budget, arrives at a time when the economy of Pakistan stabilizes but remains fragile while the country sails on reforms within the framework of an International Monetary Fund program (IMF) of $ 7 billion.
Pakistan’s federal budget for the next financial year, from July, will be published on Tuesday.
Here is a ventilation of the survey, analyzed by the brokerage company Arif Habib Limited:
- Pakistan’s economy increased by 2.68% in fiscal year 25, showing signs of stabilization. GDP at current prices increased from 9.1% to RS114 692 billion, while per capita income increased by 9.7% to $ 1,824.
- Inflation was strongly supported, with a CPI with 0.3% in April 2025 against 17.3% last year. Average inflation during Jul – APR FY5 was 4.7%, compared to 26.0% during the same period last year.
- The investment / GDP ratio improved at 13.8%, and the backup / GDP ratio increased to 14.1%.
- Agriculture posted a modest growth of 0.56% during fiscal year 25, led by an increase of 4.72% of livestock. However, large crops decreased by 13.49% due to the drop in culture and weather challenges.
- The industry extended by 4.77%, supported by manufacturing and slaughter on a small scale. Large -scale manufacturing contracted 1.5% in the middle of high costs and supply constraints.
- The services increased by 2.91% and kept the largest part of the GDP with 58.4%, supported by regular growth in retail, transport and government services.
- Pakistan recorded a budgetary surplus of RS1.896 billion (1.7% of GDP) in 1qfy25, the first in 24 years. The budget deficit for financial year 25 has shrunk 2.6% of GDP, while the primary surplus reached 3.0%.
- The policy rate was reduced to 11% in May 2025, against a peak of 22%, reflecting the drop in inflation and the drop in energy and food prices.
- Large money (M2) increased by 4.5% (PKR 1,604 billion) during July – March FY5, against growth of 7.2% the previous year.
- Borrowing from the private sector increased to 767.6 billion rupees during Jul – Mar Fy5, almost tripled last year’s level. Consumer funding has also recovered with a net increase of 71.4 billion rupees.
- The KSE-100 index won 50.2%, ending at 117,807 points in March 2025, stimulated by stable macroeconomics, companies’ profits and IMF program progress.
- The current account posted an surplus of $ 1.9 billion in July – APR FY5, overthrowing the $ 1.3 billion deficit from last year. Exchange reserves reached $ 16.64 billion in May 2025.
- The funding of funds reached a historic monthly summit of $ 4.1 billion in March 2025 and increased by 31% in annual shift to 31.2 billion dollars in July-Darril Exercise 25.
- The public debt amounted to 76,007 billion rupees at the end of March 2025, with an interior debt to RS51.518 billion and an external debt to R24 489 billion rands (87 billion dollars).
- The government has reduced short -term debt by removing 2.4 billions of rupees in the Treasury bills and has presented new instruments such as an obligation of Pakistani investment with zero coupon at 2 years and a cash flow bill of one month.
- Strategic responsibility management operations included the redemption of approximately 1 billion of rupees in government titles through buyouts and exchanges.
- Pakistan published its first Vert Sukuk worth 30 billion rupees, reporting progress towards green finance and sustainable investment.
- The government obtained $ 1.4 billion under the IMF RSF to stimulate climate resilience, institutionalizing a climate budget in its governance.
Prospects
- Real GDP growth is expected to grow to potential during fiscal year 26, with a medium-term growth expected at 5.7%, supported by macroeconomic stability, pro-growth reforms and the transformation strategy of Uraan Pakistan.
- Inflation should remain anchored at 5 to 7% in the medium term, supported by global disinflation, the relaxation of energy prices and the improvement of domestic food production.
- The current account deficit is projected at 0.8% sustainable medium-term GDP, helped by moderating energy imports, by exporting growth and sending of skilled labor from the Gulf States.
- The government focuses on the diversification of exports, regional commercial links and the integration of the value chain is essential to mitigate external shocks.
- Budget consolidation is underway thanks to the expansion of tax regions, energy sector reforms and privatization, strengthening long -term budgetary health.
- The IMF EFF & RSF support strengthens the confidence of investors, facilitating public and private investment flows.
- Improving credit conditions and a drop in inflation supports a prudently optimistic perspective for large-scale manufacturing recovery, subject to continuous macro-stability and structural reforms.
- The slowdown in global trade, the increase in risk premiums and stricter immigration to host countries can have an impact on exports, funding and investment feelings.
- The migration of potential yields and the tightening of the global labor market require domestic manure internal absorption strategies.
