An escape from Bitcoin (BTC) earlier this week has traders who are considering the level of $ 100,000 in the coming days, a euphoric business that could be short -lived as May’s seasonality approaches.
“Historically, the next two months have been low for the financial markets, with many investors respected by the sale in May and keep adage,” said Jeff Mei, Coo in Btse, in Coindesk in a telegram message.
“That said, the markets have considerably underperformed in recent months, but this year could reverse the trend, bitcoin reaching $ 97,000 and other growth actions returning in the past few weeks. The low number of GDP of last week leaving the United States will indicate a certain risk, because another report of negative GDP growth,” added a recession, but the rate cuts could lead “Added Mei.
The adage “sells in May and disappears” is a long -standing seasonal saying on traditional financial markets.
This suggests that investors should sell their assets in early May and return to the market around November, depending on the conviction that the underperform stock markets during the summer due to the drop in negotiation volumes, the reduction of institutional activity and data on historical yields.
The expression dates back to the London’s first day scholarship and was originally “sell in May and leave, come back on Saint-Léger”, referring to a horse race in mid-September.
What data shows
Historically, the American stock markets have shown lower performance from May to October than from November to April, which led to the strategy of becoming a seasonal play rule for certain investors.
Bitcoin also shows recurring seasonal models, often influenced by macro cycles, institutional flows and the feeling of retail. Coinglass data show that the active mayor’s performance has been negative or indicated recently.
In 2021, the BTC dropped by 35%, one of its worst months that year. In 2022, May was again negative, with a drop of 15% in the middle of Luna’s collapse. In 2023, the BTC was flat to slightly positive, reflecting the drive -in volatility. BTC appeared 11% last May and ended in May 2019 at 52% – a remarkable performance of every month following 2018, when the cryptographic markets were generally matured after the Altcoin cycle of this year.
The red months of May are followed by more drops in June, show the data, with four of the last five months of June ending in red.
These models do not guarantee future performance, they suggest that cryptographic markets can react more and more to the same macro and seasonal feeling than actions, especially since more institutional capital enters space.
Sign of prudence?
Traders can become careful depending on the seasonality of historical prices and discoloration after solid gatherings of the first quarter. Altcoins, especially parts even, can be particularly vulnerable to withdrawals, given their recent rallies and their speculative flows focused on media.
“Since 1950, the S&P 500 has carried out an average gain of only 1.8% from May to October, with positive yields in around 65% of these six -month periods, well below the stronger performance from November to April,” said Vugar Usi Zade, COO at Crypto Exchange Bitget ,, Coindesk in a telegram message.
In the past 12 years, the average yields of T2 (April to June) for the BTC has increased to 26%, but with a median of only 7.5% – a sign of performance focused on aberrant values and recurring volatility.
In the third quarter (July-September), the average yield fell to 6%, and the median becomes slightly negative, suggesting a model of fatigue or post-Q2 consolidation, added Zade, citing data.
“This overlap of the seasonality suggests prudence before May. Historically, the Q4 marks the strongest seasonal period in Bitcoin, with an average yield of + 85.4% and a median of + 52.3%, while the quarter tends to provide more fatal or negative results,” said Zade.
In short, while Wall Street’s calendars do not link crypto, market psychology always reacts to stories and “sell in May” could become a self -fulfilling prophecy – especially if the techniques are starting to crack and say flips.
