Many knots have been made about the outbreak of the American president Donald Trump of the crypto.
One theory is that the friendliness of the White House towards digital assets is a favor for donors of Silicon Valley, a gesture of the constituencies favorable to innovation. Another is that he reflects an administrative belief in the efficiency gains that blockchain can bring to payments.
The two explanations may contain a certain truth. But they lack a more urgent and under-analyzed reason, reason: America has a debt problem. And the challenge is not only how the United States owes (37 billions of dollars and count) either – that will continue to buy this debt.
Foreign buyers of American treasury bills – the reliable pillars of the American loan – retreat. Among other examples, the assets in China have fallen to their lowest since 2009, while Japan, formerly the largest foreign holder, has also cut.
With interest rates that are still higher than 4%, Washington rushes for new sources of demand.
The secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, who describes himself above all as the seller of American obligations, believes that he found a regular source of the crypto. Its new unlikely customers: Stablecoins.
Stablecoins as cash buyers
Stablecoins – digital tokens set for the dollar – now represent one of the fastest growth sources of American debt.
To understand why this is important, it is important first to understand mathematics: each $ 1 deposited in stablecoins results in about $ 0.90 which flow in treasury bills. Compare this with American bank deposits, where only about 11% of funds take place ultimately in treasury bills. The difference is austere. In other words, the match plan is quite simple: each dollar which stems from a bank deposit and in a stablecoin reports approximately $ 0.79 in net request for new cash.
This explains to what extent Tether, the largest stablecoin transmitter, has become a TOP -20 Treasury Bonus holder – with more than $ 125 billion in American debt. Circle, which emits USDC, is not far behind. Together, they now hold more treasury bills than some sovereigns, ranking around the 18th largest holder in the world.
In short: Stablecoins are not only a tool for cryptographic traders. They have become a single channel for cash demand.
Erase the track
It therefore does not seem to be an accident that the Trump administration authorized the track for a boom from the domestic stablecoin.
The Act on Engineering, adopted in July, obliges stablecoins to support one for one with cash treasures or in the short term – effectively channels entries in public debt. A law on the clarity of the digital assets market, promises the first federal regulations for cryptographic investment. Bessent himself did not hesitate on this subject, publicly calling the Stablecoins a means of strengthening the demand for the debt of the United States government and to cement the domination of the US dollar worldwide.
Other stages of the administration also seem to support this theory and this strategy. A strategic bitcoin reserve and a larger digital stock of digital stocks, sown with a crypto seized by the police, said that the government considers digital assets as part of its financial toolbox. In addition, a recent decree prevented banks from blocking cryptographic transactions, reducing friction for retail and institutions. Another change of rule Open the door for 401(K) Retirement savings to invest in digital assetsCreating a new powerful capital channel.
Each initiative reduces the perceived risk of crypto, attracts new participants and, ultimately, pushes more dollars in the stablecoins – and by extension in treasury bills.
Traps and risks
For all its momentum, Bessent’s strategy is not without dangers. Stablecoins are still low compared to the American financial system of $ 50 billions, and their demand may be inconsistent. If the feeling turns or the Crypto adoption stands, the treasure offer could shrink as quickly as it has developed, leaving Washington in search of buyers.
Even if growth continues, the mechanics of Stablecoin reserves has distortive effects. Given that transmitters are limited to detention only of cash and short -term treasures, their climb channels require almost exclusively at the front end of the yield curve. This concentration bows far from long -term obligations and can reshape the maturity profile of the American debt in a way that the decision -makers did not expect.
Finally, it is unlikely that the banks give up the ground quietly. The deposit leak in the stablescoins is a direct threat to their business model, which depends on the capture of the yield in US dollars. This is precisely why the act of genius prohibits issuers from offering yields. But the bypass solutions are already explored, setting up a competitive struggle on which wins the yield on the dollars which support Stablecoin.
Conclusion
The dominant story is that Trump’s crypto pivot concerns innovation or the Silicon Valley panding. Reality seems more pragmatic – and more urgent. Stablecoins are positioned as a Trojan horse for the demand of the treasure, which channels the world dollars in American debt more effectively than banks or foreign sovereigns.
It remains to be seen that this gambit succeeds or inflates another bubble. But he reappears the debate on cryptography: in the eyes of Washington, the Stablecoins are not a show. They can be the ballast that kept the American debt machine afloat.
