The probability that Iran’s leadership will block Hormuz Strait for shipping increased after the American air strikes on Iranian nuclear installations.
At the time of the press, the actions on the side yes of the contract contributed by polymarket “will they close the Hormuz Strait before June 30, trading at 40 cents, which represents a probability of 40%. It is a notable increase of 14% on Saturday. During this time, the chances of the event occurring by the end of the year at 52%, against 33% the day before.
According to the Middle East Forum Observer, around 20 million barrels of oil are transported by the Hormuz Strait, representing around 20% of world oil consumption. Therefore, the potential closure of the HORMUZ could trigger a sustained shock from the price of oil.
According to JPMorgan analysts, the closure of the Hormuz Strait could catapult crude oil prices with $ 120 to $ 130 per barrel.
Such an increase in oil prices, associated with the current trade war, could lead to stagflation – the worst result for financial assets, including cryptocurrencies.
During the editorial staff, the cryptocurrency market has shown no signs of panic, with Bitcoin
Continuing to negotiate above $ 100,000, per Coindesk data.
President Donald Trump confirmed air strikes on Saturday evening, saying that the attack deletes the three installations of critical Iranian nuclear enrichment, calling “the intimidator of the Middle East [Iran] make peace. “”
