- New Gartner report predicts PC sales will fall 10.4% this year
- Rising cost of RAM could make ‘low-margin entry-level laptops unviable’
- The analyst firm predicts: “Ultimately, we expect the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment to disappear by 2028.”
For some time now, there’s been growing evidence that buying a PC now, rather than waiting, is a very smart idea to avoid further RAM-fueled price hikes with desktops and laptops – and a new prediction from Gartner adds to that pile.
In a new report from the analyst firm (spotted by VGC), Gartner observes that “entry-level PCs are facing obsolescence” due to the increasing cost of RAM, which is expected to peak this year at 23% of a PC’s total bill of materials (on average), up from 16% in 2025.
The bill of materials, called BOM for short, is the cost of all the components that make up a PC. (From CPU and GPU to memory, SSD and motherboard, including all other elements such as fans, connectors, power supply and the case or chassis itself).
Ranjit Atwal, senior managing analyst at Gartner, notes: “This surge removes vendors’ ability to absorb costs, making low-margin entry-level laptops unviable. Ultimately, we expect the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment to disappear by 2028.”
Atwal further predicts that: “Additionally, rising prices of AI PCs will delay the planned 50% penetration of the AI PC market until 2028.”
Gartner estimates that PC shipments will fall 10.4% in 2026 compared to last year as the market weakens (and phone shipments will also fall 8.4%, we’re told).
By the end of 2026, the analyst firm predicts a 130% increase in the costs of RAM and SSDs, which will cause asking prices for PCs to increase by about 17% compared to 2025, Gartner estimates – a considerable increase.
Analysis: The biggest contraction in PC shipments in over a decade
So this won’t just be a low-end PC issue, and it makes perfect sense that the high end of the market will also be affected by rising RAM costs (as well as storage). These devices have more wiggle room in terms of overall cost to make hikes less impactful, of course.
Nonetheless, the general prediction is that more expensive AI (Copilot+) laptops will lose sales momentum this year and next, and won’t recover until 2028, alongside the disappearing act, which is apparently going to happen with sub-$500 laptops and desktops.
That’s unfortunately a pretty credible prediction, and even if these budget computers don’t disappear completely, I’d bet on their demise. a lot thinner on the ground as 2026 progresses. HP has previously said that the cost of RAM has skyrocketed for its laptops, and indeed the manufacturer told us that system memory’s share of the total bill of materials has doubled in the space of a quarter. It’s a frightening revelation, frankly, and one that more than confirms the idea put forward by Gartner.
So those who think they’ll need a new laptop in the near future might be advised to start looking at buying one now, especially if they’re looking at the budget side of the market.
There is of course another perspective. Rather than upgrading, users will simply keep their existing PC for longer.
As Atwal observes: “This is the largest contraction in device shipments seen in over a decade. Higher prices will reduce the range of devices available, incentivizing buyers to hold on to devices longer, fundamentally changing upgrade cycles. »
According to Gartner, holdouts waiting for PC prices to cool down will likely mean the average device lifespan will be extended by about 20% for consumers by the end of the year (and 15% for business buyers). This could mean people are left with outdated laptops running Windows 10, of course, with no updates in place (after extended support expires in October 2026) and a series of security risks they have to deal with.
No matter how you look at it, the outlook for the PC market is pretty bleak.
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