Bitcoin has so far rebounded above $90,000, 15% higher than its November 21 low of around $80,000, with price finding confluence support on three important cost basis metrics: the 2024 annual volume-weighted cost basis, the actual market average, and the average cost basis for U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
These metrics help identify areas where investors are most likely to defend their positions during withdrawals. The support area proved vital, as it closely aligned with the average acquisition prices of multiple investor cohorts.
First, the true market average represents the average on-chain purchase price of bitcoin held by active market participants. It focuses on coins that have moved recently, filtering out long-dormant supply, and therefore reflects the cost basis of investors most likely to transact.
During this pullback, the actual market average hovered near $81,000 and provided clear support. Notably, bitcoin broke above this level for the first time in October 2023 and has not traded below it since, reinforcing its importance as a structural bull market threshold.
Second, the cost basis of U.S. spot ETFs reflects the weighted average price at which bitcoin flowed into U.S.-listed spot ETFs. This is calculated by Glassnode using the combined daily ETF inflows with the market price.
The average basis cost currently sits around $83,844, according to Glassnode, and bitcoin has bounced off that level again, as it similarly did during the April tariff-driven sell-off.
The third metric, the 2024 annual cost base, tracks the average price at which coins acquired in 2024 were removed from exchanges. CoinDesk Research has shown a trend where annual cohort cost bases tend to act as support during bull markets.
In this case, the cost base for 2024, close to $83,000, according to checkonchain, provided further confirmation of demand, and was also seen as support during the April correction.
These measures highlight the scale of demand for support in the $80,000 region.
