President Donald Trump is ending the third week of the Iran war facing a crisis that seems beyond his control: global energy prices are soaring, the United States is isolated from its allies and additional troops are preparing to be deployed despite his promise that the war would be only a “short excursion.”
A defensive Trump called other NATO countries “cowards” for refusing to help secure the Strait of Hormuz and insisted the campaign was “going as planned.” But his declaration Friday that the battle “was WON militarily” clashed with the reality of a rebellious Iran choking off Gulf oil and gas supplies while launching missile strikes in the region.
Trump, who took office promising to keep the United States away from “stupid” military interventions, now appears to control neither the outcome nor the message of a conflict he helped spark. The lack of a clear exit strategy poses risks to both his presidential legacy and his party’s political prospects as Republicans scramble to defend a narrow congressional majority in November’s midterm elections.
“Trump has built a box for himself called war in Iran, and he doesn’t know how to get out of it,” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for the Republican and Democratic administrations. “It’s his biggest source of frustration.”
A White House official disputed that characterization, as many of Iran’s leaders have been eliminated in targeted assassinations, most of its navy has been sunk and its ballistic missile arsenal has been largely destroyed.
“It was an undisputed military success,” the official said.
Limits on Trump’s powers
The limits of Trump’s power – diplomatically, militarily and politically – have been exposed over the past week.
He was caught off guard by resistance from NATO members and other foreign partners to deploy their marines to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, according to another White House official who, like other officials Reuters spoke with for this story, was granted anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
With the president not wanting to appear isolated, some White House aides advised Trump to quickly find an “exit” and set limits on the scope of the military operation, a person familiar with the discussions said. But it was unclear whether that argument was enough to convince Trump.
In the view of some analysts, the allies’ lack of will reflects not only their reluctance to get involved in a war on which they were not consulted, but also a backlash against the devaluation of traditional American alliances since its return to power 14 months ago.
Differences with Israel also began to surface, with Trump insisting that he knew nothing in advance about the Israeli attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field, while Israeli officials said the attack had indeed been coordinated with the United States.
Trump now finds himself at a crossroads in Operation Epic Fury, with no clear sign on which path he might take, analysts say.
He could go all-in and intensify the U.S. offensive, perhaps even seizing Iran’s oil hub of Kharg Island or deploying troops along the Iranian coast to search for missile launchers. But this would risk generating a long-term military commitment to which the majority of American public opinion would be opposed.
Or, with both sides rejecting negotiations for now, Trump could declare victory and “attempt to walk away,” which could alienate Gulf allies who would be left with a wounded and hostile Iran — one that could still pursue a rudimentary nuclear weapon and exert control over Gulf shipping. Iran has denied wanting to acquire nuclear weapons.
Reuters reported Friday that the U.S. military was deploying thousands of additional Marines and sailors to the Middle East, although no decisions have been made on whether to send troops to Iran itself.
The war also showed that Trump’s once iron grip on his MAGA movement is weakening, with prominent influencers speaking out against the conflict. Although his base has supported him so far, analysts say Trump’s control could weaken in the coming weeks if gas prices continue to rise and U.S. troops are deployed.
“As the economy changes,” said Republican strategist Dave Wilson, “people will start to say, ‘Why am I still paying high prices for gasoline? … Why is the Strait of Hormuz now determining whether or not I can take a vacation next month?'”
As the economy changes, Republican strategist Dave Wilson said, people will start saying, ‘Why am I still paying high prices for gasoline?’ …Why does the Strait of Hormuz now determine whether or not I can take a vacation next month?'”
Calculation errors
Since the war began on Feb. 28, the administration has become increasingly aware that the conflict and its aftermath should have been better planned in advance, according to two sources familiar with White House thinking, although the top White House official countered that the campaign was extensively planned and well-equipped for any potential action.
Analysts say Trump’s biggest misjudgment was how Iran would respond to a conflict it views as existential.
Tehran responded with its remaining missiles and a fleet of armed drones to offset its enemies’ military superiority, striking neighboring Gulf states and largely closing the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for a fifth of the world’s oil.
Whether or not Trump and his aides anticipated the dangers, they have been unable to effectively counter them.
“They haven’t thought through the contingencies of how a conflict with Iran could go wrong, where it might not go according to the plan that they laid out,” said former U.S. Ambassador John Bass, who served in Afghanistan and Turkey.
As the conflict drags on, there are increasing signs of Trump’s frustration with his inability to control the discourse. In recent days, he has lashed out at the media, making unfounded allegations of “treason” for reporting he sees as undermining the war effort.
“He’s having a hard time running the news cycle, as he’s used to, because he still can’t explain why he dragged this country into war and what comes next,” said Brett Bruen, a former foreign policy adviser in the Obama administration who now runs the Situation Room strategic consultancy in Washington. “It seems to have lost momentum when it comes to messaging.”
