A leading merchant on the decentralized Paris Polymarket Paris platform, which bears the name of Justwakingup, bet that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce interest rates from 50 basic points (BPS) Next week.
According to X Handle Polymarket Whales, Justwakingu is the most prolific trader of the platform, with almost $ 400 million in total negotiation volume to date and profits exceeding $ 2 million.
The merchant has placed a bet of $ 15,000 that the Fed will reduce the rates of 50 BPS to 3.75% next week and already displays a 3% gain in writing position. The merchant should earn about $ 226,000 if the Fed drops the rates of 5 BPS.
The market, however, largely provides that the Fed offers a reduction of 25 base points next week, the CME Fedwatch tool attributing a probability of 91% to such a result.
That said, the chances of a jumbo cup of 50 points of view increased to almost 10% after the disappointing report of the August Friday jobs, reflecting increasing expectations of a more aggressive relaxation. Blackrock and Stanchart called for a 50 BPS cup.
Adding to market expectations, the American labor statistics office said on Tuesday that the economy added 911,000 less jobs in the 12 months ending in March 2025 than previously, marking the largest annual revision never registered.
Traders are now looking closely at the American producer price index and the versions of the consumer price index on Thursday. Sweeter than expected readings could add to expectations for a cut of 50 bps, potentially sending bitcoin and higher stocks.
