BlackRock’s Rick Rieder, UBS’s Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi and hedge fund manager Daniel Loeb envision an economy in 2026 that could continue to grow even as the market’s center of gravity shifts.
The overall message emerging from their various appearances at a conference in Miami last week was not that the AI boom was about to end. Instead, they say, the easy phase may be over. As capital expands beyond a handful of giant U.S. tech stocks, investors may need to think less about a particular theme and more about where growth, pricing power and disruption will appear next.
This view could be important for crypto markets, especially bitcoin. . If investors move away from the crowded trading that has characterized recent years, some may become more interested in assets outside traditional stock sectors. Bitcoin has often traded as a high-beta technology proxy during periods of risk, but it can also attract demand when investors seek diversification from dollar assets, long-duration growth stocks, or amid political uncertainty.
In practice, however, bitcoin has not always performed as the primary hedge against dollar weakness, particularly in recent months when gold has become the dominant asset as investors move away from the dollar. But as bitcoin matures – many argue it is still a young asset compared to gold – that could change.
Rieder, chief investment officer for BlackRock’s global fixed income, said he has expanded his portfolios by moving away from concentrated technology bets. He said he still likes parts of technology, but called the investment landscape different from last year as one he would remember for a while.
His outlook is based in part on the idea that U.S. growth could surprise on the upside even if rates fall. Rieder said AI-driven productivity could help the economy grow while a still weak job market keeps inflation in check. He also argued that tariffs may be significant for certain industries but have less impact on the economy as a whole because the United States is more dependent on services than goods.
For Bitcoin, this combination goes both ways. Stronger growth and lower rates would generally support risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. But if inflation remains contained and real economic activity improves, investors may feel less pressure to seek out other stores of value. In this configuration, the case for Bitcoin could rely less on macroeconomic fear and more on portfolio diversification and institutional adoption.
Hoffmann-Burchardi, UBS Global Wealth Management’s chief investment officer for the Americas and global head of equities, also said the macroeconomic backdrop is expected to improve this year, pointing to fiscal stimulus in major economies and greater room for rate cuts in the United States. His main argument, however, is that the AI business is changing.
After three years in which markets rewarded companies that enabled the development of AI, she said investors are entering a phase in which winners and losers will become more clearly separated. UBS responded by reducing its overweighting in technology and communications services and shifting to industrials, electrification and healthcare.
This rotation could also affect crypto. If equity investors become more selective about AI and digital-related business models, tokens tied to general AI narratives could face greater scrutiny. Bitcoin may be better positioned than smaller crypto assets in this environment because its investment case is simpler. It doesn’t depend on proving a software revenue model or winning an AI market share race.
Loeb, founder of hedge fund Third Point, said the market already rewards investors who pick more stocks and sell more shorts. He described a move away from crowded mega-cap deals in favor of smaller, niche companies, including companies in Europe, Japan and South Korea that provide key elements of AI development.
Regarding the economy, Loeb said the United States is in a good position for the next six months, although he is less sure about the outlook beyond that period. He also said that strains in private credit, particularly in loans linked to software companies, are likely to produce losses over time but not a systemic shock.
Together, the three investors described a year in which growth holds up, AI remains the dominant force, and markets become more difficult to navigate. For Bitcoin, this may mean fewer tailwinds from simple dynamic trading and a greater need to stand on its own as a hedge, diversifier, or liquid alternative in a more fragmented market.
