Bitcoin rose from $88,000 in Asian hours to over $90,000 in European afternoon trading Monday, but reasons for caution persist as U.S. markets take over.
BTC has tended to find early support in Asia and Europe in recent weeks, only to disappear once US investors return to the market.
That dynamic made the U.S. session a key test of whether the rallies can last. Previous surges above major levels, including $90,000, have often reversed during New York hours as hedges are added and profits are taken – often leading to hundreds of millions in liquidations amid seesawing trading.
The positioning of derivatives shows an increase in risk alongside price. According to data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin futures open interest increased steadily as BTC surged on Monday, climbing as high as $60 billion on major venues.
Binance, CME, and Bybit all saw notable increases, suggesting the entry of new leverage into the market rather than just covering short positions.
This dynamic has become familiar in recent weeks, characterized by price strength just outside of U.S. business hours, followed by heavier selling once U.S. traders come online.
The concern is no longer the breakout itself, but rather whether the rally is supported by spot demand or whether it is increasingly dependent on leveraged futures contracts.
Open interest rising alongside prices isn’t automatically a sign of trouble, but it does raise the stakes. If the movement continues, leverage can amplify the rise. If momentum stalls, crowded positioning leaves the market vulnerable to rapid pullbacks as long positions unwind.
The risk for bulls is that the inability to hold $90,000 during US trading hours could reinforce the market’s recent trend of lower highs and rapid pullbacks.
On the other hand, a sustained move above this level would mark a break from the opening selling behavior that defined much of December.
