U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw inflows of $240 million on Thursday, marking the first day of positive flows since October 28, according to Farside data.
No outflows were reported by any ETF provider, ending a streak of six consecutive days of outflows. The longest period of outflows since the ETFs’ launch remains eight consecutive trading days, a trend that has historically coincided with market or local lows for bitcoin.
Since the U.S. government shutdown began on October 1, ETF flows have been mostly negative, with the exception of the first week of October when bitcoin briefly rebounded from $114,000 to $126,000. The persistent outflows have since aligned with bitcoin’s decline to $100,000. The asset is now down 11% since the close, while the Nasdaq and gold are up 2% and 4%, respectively.
As the shutdown continues, it is expected to further erode market confidence and increase the risk of reduced liquidity, likely dampening investor appetite for risky assets such as Bitcoin. Notably, the government shutdown in 2018-2019 coincided with a bottom in the bitcoin market during that cycle.
According to prediction platform Polymarket, there is currently around a 50% chance that the government shutdown will extend beyond November 16, a scenario that could continue to weigh on bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Bitcoin’s current correction, which began on October 6, has seen a 21% decline over 31 days. For comparison, the correction during the April tariff sell-off lasted 79 days and resulted in a 32% decline.
