- US intelligence services say Iran’s leadership remains stable.
- The IRGC continues to dominate the security and economic sectors.
- Israel admits that regime collapse is not guaranteed.
NEW YORK/WASHINGTON: U.S. intelligence indicates that Iran’s leadership is still largely intact and unlikely to collapse anytime soon after nearly two weeks of relentless U.S. and Israeli bombing, according to three sources familiar with the matter.
A “multitude” of intelligence reports provide “a consistent analysis that the regime is in no danger” of collapsing and “retains control of the Iranian public,” said one of the sources, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss the U.S. intelligence findings.
The latest report was completed in recent days, the source said.
As political pressure mounts over soaring oil prices, President Donald Trump has suggested he will “soon” end the largest U.S. military operation since 2003. But finding an acceptable end to the war could be difficult if Iran’s hard-line leaders remain firmly entrenched.
Intelligence reports highlight the cohesion of Iranian leaders despite the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, the first day of US and Israeli strikes.
Israeli officials, in closed-door discussions, also acknowledged that there was no certainty that the war would lead to the collapse of the government, a senior Israeli official told Reuters.
The sources stressed that the situation on the ground is fluid and the dynamics in Iran could change.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Changing goals
Since the start of their war, the United States and Israel have struck a range of Iranian targets, including air defenses, nuclear sites and senior leaders.
The Trump administration has given various reasons for this war. In announcing the start of the US operation, Trump urged the Iranians to “take control of your government”, but his top aides have since denied the aim was to oust Iran’s leaders.
Besides Khamenei, the strikes killed dozens of senior officials and some of the most senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite paramilitary force that controls much of the economy.
Still, U.S. intelligence reports indicate that the IRGC and interim leaders who took power after Khamenei’s death remain in control of the country.
The Assembly of Experts, a group of senior leaders, declared Khamenei’s son Mojtaba the new supreme leader earlier this week.
Israel has no intention of allowing the remnants of the former government to remain intact, a fourth source familiar with the matter said.
It is unclear how the current US-Israeli military campaign could topple the government.
That would likely require a ground offensive that would allow people across Iran to safely protest in the streets, the source said.
The Trump administration does not rule out sending American troops to Iran.
Intelligence suggests Kurds lack firepower to fight Iran
Reuters reported last week that Iranian Kurdish militias based in neighboring Iraq had consulted with the United States on how and whether to attack Iranian security forces in the west of the country.
Such an incursion could put pressure on Iran’s security services, allowing Iranians to rise up against the government.
Abdullah Mohtadi, head of Iranian Kurdistan’s Komala Party, which is part of a coalition of six Iranian Kurdish parties, said in an interview Wednesday that the parties are highly organized in Iran and that “tens of thousands of young people are ready to take up arms” against the government if they receive U.S. support.
Mohtadi said he had received reports from Iranian Kurdistan that IRGC units and other security forces had abandoned their bases and barracks for fear of US and Israeli strikes.
“We have witnessed tangible signs of weakness in Kurdish areas,” he said.
But recent U.S. intelligence reports have cast doubt on the ability of Iranian Kurdish groups to support the fight against Iranian security services, according to two sources familiar with the assessments.
Intelligence indicates the groups lack firepower and numbers, they said.
The Kurdish regional government, which governs the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan where Iranian Kurdish groups are based, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Iranian Kurdish groups have asked senior Washington officials and U.S. lawmakers in recent days for the United States to provide them with weapons and armored vehicles, another person familiar with the matter said.
But Trump said Saturday that he had ruled out the entry of Iranian Kurdish groups into Iran.
