The record U.S. government shutdown appears to be reaching its home stretch, with predictive markets signaling overwhelming confidence that a deal will clear Congress within days.
On Polymarket, traders now assign a 96% probability that the government will reopen between November 12 and 15, which corresponds to the expected House vote on the bipartisan Senate funding bill.
In Kalshi, contracts tied to the duration of the shutdown saw similar dynamics, with traders banking on an end within the next 72 hours as confidence rose following the Senate’s 60-40 vote to fund the government until January 30.
This rise in ratings follows a decisive change in Washington over the weekend.
Seven Democratic senators broke ranks to join Republicans in advancing a bill that reverses mass federal layoffs, restores back pay and food assistance, and keeps federal agencies running, but leaves a politically explosive issue unresolved: the expiration of Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, which help lower monthly insurance premiums for millions of people.
December vote on subsidies
Even some Trump allies are resisting. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene accused party leaders of “having no plan” to address the potential doubling of bonuses if the subsidies expire, while a bloc of embattled House Republicans urged Speaker Mike Johnson to act before the end of the year. Johnson has not yet committed to voting on ACA relief, although he has pledged to hold “a deliberative process” after the government reopens.
A Senate vote on the subsidies in December is part of the shutdown deal, but its passage remains uncertain.
If market forecasts are confirmed, the government could reopen by November 14, once the House passes the funding bill and Trump signs it. But as traders in Kalshi and Polymarket make profits as the lockdown ends, both sides continue to gamble on a much more difficult question: Who is blamed?
Paris halfway
And if the results of next year’s midterm elections are to blame, prediction markets are already pricing in the points.
On Polymarket, traders give Republicans a 44% chance of retaining the Senate while losing the House, a split outcome that implies voters could punish both parties for Washington’s dysfunction.
The odds of a Democratic victory and a Republican victory are tied at about 27% each, suggesting that neither party has succeeded in turning the shutdown into political capital.
