Bitcoin’s latest sell-off is driven by mid-cycle holders rather than long-term whales, according to VanEck’s “Mid-November 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck” report.
The asset management firm said portfolios whose coins were last moved in the past five years account for the bulk of recent selling, while older cohorts have remained “remarkably stable” despite weakening sentiment. VanEck also noted that coins that were last moved more than five years ago continue to age in the cohort, adding approximately +278,000 BTC over the past two years, which the firm says indicates that long-term conviction remains intact.
The report comes as bitcoin trades near its lowest level in several months. BTC was most recently hovering around $86,696 as of 9:15 p.m. UTC on Thursday, down 3.2% over the past 24 hours and 31.2% below its October 6 all-time high of $126,080, according to CoinGecko. Analysts have linked the broader decline to forced liquidations, the distribution of long-term holders and increased volatility in offshore derivatives markets.
“There have been several catalysts, but it appears that the main drivers are long-term ‘OG’ sales, an uncertain economic climate and a massive deleveraging event on October 10,” Nic Puckrin, CEO of Coin Bureau, told Euronews. He said holders who were older and had large balances had been “selling for several weeks,” creating “a flood of supply hitting the market.”
Carol Alexander, professor of finance at the University of Sussex, told Euronews that Bitcoin’s fluctuations also reflect aggressive trading behavior on offshore platforms. She said professional trading firms were deploying order book strategies that were “described as spoofing or scaling,” adding that these firms “only care about that.” [the price] move quickly. »
VanEck said the 3- to 5-year-old age bracket has fallen 32% over the past two years as these coins change addresses, a trend the firm associates with the turnover of cyclical traders rather than the decade-long capitulation of holders.
The report also highlighted a reset in speculative positioning: open interest on Bitcoin perpetuals has fallen 20% in BTC terms and 32% in dollar terms since October 9, pushing funding rates to levels similar to previous periods. Small wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC increased their balances by 9% in six months and 23% in a year, while the largest cohort of whales reduced their positions.
VanEck said the combination of long-term holder stability, cohort turnover and futures market capitulation leaves Bitcoin in a state of “reset” that has historically preceded tactical bounces.
