Coinbase’s (COIN) third-quarter earnings report, which beat expectations, prompted a series of responses from Wall Street analysts, highlighting stark differences in expectations for the crypto exchange’s long-term growth and ability to manage costs.
The company reported $1.05 billion in trading revenue and $801 million in adjusted Ebitda, both above consensus estimates. Analysts across the spectrum agreed that Deribit’s derivatives trading, subscription services and integration helped set the tone. From there, opinions differ.
Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish acknowledged Coinbase’s performance but pointed to rising costs and shrinking margins heading into the fourth quarter. He cited rising operating expenses, driven by hiring and acquisitions like fundraising platform Echo, as key challenges. Budish lowered its price target from $361 to $357, citing lower earnings estimates for 2026.
Owen Lau of Clear Street was more optimistic. He raised his target to $415 from $405, saying Coinbase is well-positioned to benefit from a growing role in cross-border B2B payments. Lau highlighted Coinbase’s partnerships with Citi and Shopify and said stablecoin-based merchant payments could take market share from traditional routes. He also pointed to regulatory advancements, such as the possible passage of the Clarity Act in the United States next year, as a potential catalyst for the “Altcoin summer.”
Benchmark’s Mark Palmer echoed this optimism, maintaining a Buy rating and a target of $421. He framed the profits as a return to form, with Coinbase demonstrating operational leverage as crypto markets heated up. He highlighted the importance of subscription revenue, which grew 14% quarter-over-quarter, and the company’s role in broader institutional adoption of digital assets.
Citi also struck an optimistic tone, highlighting momentum in the stock market’s expanding business sectors.
Analysts led by Peter Christiansen said they were encouraged by the company’s progress in signing new onchain-as-a-service partnerships, including with Samsung and several banks. The report adds that the company’s “Everything Exchange” vision is starting to take shape, with options trading now live and futures volumes expected to increase.
Ongoing digital asset reforms could improve market access, and the bank noted they could also unleash “a wave of pent-up innovation.” Analysts reaffirmed their Buy rating on the stock and their $505 price target.
Compass Point’s Ed Engel, however, warned that cost growth outpacing revenue puts Coinbase in a vulnerable position if crypto markets cool. It reduced its Ebitda estimate for 2026 and lowered its target from $277 to $266. Engel was skeptical that stablecoin and staking revenue would continue to grow, especially if interest rates fall and retail crypto enthusiasm wanes.
Broker Bernstein noted that the results fell short of their high expectations, but said the company was on a “path to building a generational business and its destiny was not simply determined by crypto price action.”
The rollout of the Base app to millions of users, alongside the launch of a Base token, could mark a “Crypto Venmo” moment for Coinbase, the report said, signaling a major step toward mainstream adoption. The broker reiterated its outperform rating on the stock and its price target of $510.
The main point of agreement was Coinbase’s growing presence in derivatives and stablecoin-related products. But even that comes with caveats, as analysts have noted falling commission rates and increasing competition from Circle Internet (CRCL), which is trying to attract more volume of its stablecoin USDC to its own platform.
Ultimately, Coinbase’s short-term success is clear. But as crypto markets remain volatile and the company spends heavily on growth, the long-term outlook depends on whether new revenue streams such as B2B payments and tokenized assets can scale quickly enough to justify the investment.
Price targets now range from $266 to $510, a spread that reflects both the opportunity Coinbase is seeking and the risks if it stumbles.
