Bitcoin
The double prospects over $ 100,000 guarantee caution, but a full -fledged 2022 style accident seems unlikely unless an unexpected black swan strikes, according to Katalin Tischhauser, head of research on the investments of the banking group of digital assets.
“The cryptographic market is strongly focused on the feeling that fundamental evaluations are difficult; therefore, technical analysis signals such as the collapse of the double mandate. Coindesk in an interview.
Bitcoin spent 50 days mainly exchanging between $ 110,000 and $ 100,000, reporting an increase in the upward trend near the peaks reached in January of this year. This has prompted several observers, including the technical analyst veteran Peter Brandt, to consider the possibility that the BTC trend reverses Bearish with a double high model.
The double summit includes two peaks following the same price – nearly $ 110,000 in the case of BTC – with a trend traced through the low point between these peaks. The low point in the case of the BTC is the slide in early April at $ 75,000. Analysts fear that potential doubles in double upper double, involving a slowdown of $ 110,000 and a drop of less than $ 75,000, could lead to an accident at around $ 27,000. Yes, you read that right. Such a crash would mean a slide of 75% of peaks.
Technical models, such as double top, often become self -fulfilling prophecies – once traders identify the model, their collective action strengthens the expected result. It is therefore natural that the double prospects above $ 100,000 cause a certain caution and a drop in prices.
However, techniques alone rarely cause a price crash of 75%. For example, the BTC crash from $ 70,000 to $ 16,000 over the 12 months to November 2022 has occurred while the Fed hiking cycle exhibited asset classes like crypto where excess speculation had accumulated, preparing the ground for the disappearance of the terra blockchain and the FTX exchange. The two events caused a massive destruction of wealth.
Bull Run led by flows
The latest rally, however, is mainly motivated by institutional flows rather than by history or pretension that DEFI is better than traditional finance or Ethereum is the new world computer, as noted by Bloomberg Joe Huisentul last year.
Since their beginnings on the Nasdaq in January 2024, the 11 placed have been negotiated in exchange Bitcoin (ETF) recorded net entries of more than $ 48 billion, according to data followed by distant investors. Meanwhile, the adoption of BTC as a corporate cash rat of accelerated, adding to the momentum of the bull. At the time of writing time, 141 public companies held 841,693 BTC, according to Bitcointheries.net.
According to Tischhauser, the nature focused on the flows of the last bull race makes it more resilient than the previous bull markets.
“The institutions are implementing a rigorous reasonable diligence and risk assessment before adding a new asset class like Bitcoin to the portfolio of models. But when they do, the possible allowance is in the long term. This trend of the sticky institutional allowance is rightly so, and the resulting demand will continue to provide support for prices for a certain time to come,” said Tischhauser to Conedesk.
Tischhauser explained that these investment vehicles aspire liquidity, distort the dynamics of demand in favor of a continuous rise.
“These investment vehicles suck the liquidity of the market, which means that each time a new investor with large tickets arrives on the market with offers, this tackles less and less the offer, and the bullish impact on prices becomes more pronounced,” noted Tischhauser.
The cycle in half can be dead
The scenario of Crash Brewier Lower seems to be plausible for many observers, because we are during the post-colvue year, which historically marked the heights of the Haussier market, paving the way to the one-year bear markets.
Half reduction is a programmed code in the Bitcoin blockchain which reduces the rate of the expansion of the BTC offer by 50% every four years. The last reduction in half occurred in April 2024 and reduced the BTC reward by block to 3.125 BTC by 6.25 BTC.
However, half cycle may not take place as planned, because the sticky institutional adoption has a greater impact on the price than minors. In addition, BTC has sold by minors, who have regulatory unloading that parts earned to finance operating costs, now represents a small percentage of the average daily negotiation volume.
“The change in leadership on the market means that the division cycle in half of four years may not be played religiously as it did before. The earlier, most BTC holders were minors, and the BTC issued per year was a huge percentage of the bitcoin offer on suspense. Thus, the sale of the pressure of minors imported. 0.05-0.1% of the average BTC demand, the volume of BTC tradiers does not have an impact on balance / demand for BTC demand, BTC demand has no impact on balance / demand for the BTC Bandise demand has no impact on balance / demand for the MAUDE BTC request no OSI pruing on the market.
