“We are on the time of AI”, that’s what I say to people now when they try to understand the rapid rhythm of AI and all connected, advanced technologies.
Even if it’s only two and a half years since Openai triggered the chatpt in the world, I have known intuitively for months than in the world of technology, we have no longer operated on Moore’s law: the number of transistors on a double chip every two years. This is now the AI model law, in which the generative capacities of the model double every three months.
Even if you do not believe that the models of large languages (LLM) develop at this rate, it is undeniable at the unprecedented adoption speed.
A new report (or rather a presentation of 340 pages) by Mary Meeker, a general partner at Bond Investments, paints the clearest image of the transforming nature of AI and how it is different from any other previous technological era.
“The rhythm and scope of change linked to the evolution of artificial intelligence technology are indeed unprecedented, as the data support,” wrote Meeker and his co-authors.
Google, what?
A particular statistics stood out: it took Google nine years to reach 365 billion annual research. Chatgpt has taken the same stage in two years.
Meeker’s presentation illustrates something that I have been trying to articulate for some time. There has never been time like that.
I have experienced some major technological changes: the rise of personal IT, the transition from analog publication tools to digital publication tools and the online revolution. Most of this change was progressive, however, granted, it felt quickly at the time.
I saw for the first time digital publication tools in the mid -1970s, and it was only in the 1980s from the middle to the end that many of us made the change, which was also at the time when personal computers began to arrive, although they do not become omnipresent for at least another decade.
The time of AI leaves little time, I think, for self-reflection.
With the public Internet arriving in 1993, it would take years before most people were high speed. Knowledge workers did not immediately rose. Instead, there has been a slow and regular change in the labor market.
I would say that we have had a decade of solid before internet adjustment and its associated systems and platforms have become an inexorable part of our lives.
I still remember how confused the average person was. In the program Today in 1994, the hosts literally asked aloud: “What is Internet?” AI and platforms like Chatgpt, Copilot, Claude AI and others have not encountered the same level of confusion.
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Meeker’s report notes that chatgpt users are shone zero in October 2020 to 400m at the end of 2024 and 800m in 2025. Shocking people pay subscribers. It took decades to convince people to pay all content on the internet, but for AI, people are already queuing with their open wallets.
I suppose that the rise of internet and omnipresent and mobile computers may have prepared us in the AI era. It is not as if artificial intelligence has appeared to the unexpected. Again, it did.
Almost a decade ago, we were emerging against Deep Blue of IBM, the first AI to beat a chess master, Gary Kasparov. This was followed in 2005 with an autonomous car finishing the Darpa challenge. A decade after that, we saw Deepmind Alphago beat the best player in the world in the world.
Some of these developments were surprising, but they arrived at a relatively digestible pace. Despite this, things started to resume in 2016, and various groups began to ring the warning bells of the AI. No one publicly used the terms “LLM” or “generative”. However, the concern was such that IBM, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft and Deepmind of Google trained the non -profit partnership on AI, which was intended to “take up opportunities and challenges with AI technologies for the benefit of people and society”.
This group still exists, however, I am not sure that anyone pays attention to its recommendations. The time of AI leaves little time, I think, for self-reflection.
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A study by the University of Stanford 2016 on the AI in 2030 (not available online) noted that “contrary to the more fantastic predictions for AI in the popular press, the study committee found no cause that AI is an imminent threat to humanity.”
The presentation of Meeker, however, presents an accelerated image which, I think, raises a certain concern, with a warning: the predictions come from Chatgpt (which is an even greater concern).
By 2030, for example, he predicted the capacity to create films and full games. I would say that Veo 3 from Gemini is proof that we are on the right track.
He promises the ability to manage human robots. I would add that the time of AI has accelerated humanoid robotic development in a way that I, during my 25 years of roofing of robotics, I have never seen before.
He says that AI will build and géra autonomous companies.
In 10 years, Chatgpt thinks that AI will be able to simulate human minds.
If we remember that Chatgpt, like most LLMs, founds most of his knowledge on the known universe, I think we can assume that these predictions are, if necessary, under-abuse. Even AI does not know what we do not know.
There was an argument in the office that I had painful the equation. There is no law on AI model, there is only Huang’s law (for Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of Nvidia). This law predicts a doubling of the GPU performance at least every two years. Without the power of these processors, AI stands. Perhaps, but I think that the power of these models has not yet caught up the processing power provided by the NVIDIA GPUs.
Huang simply builds for a future in which each person and business want a generative power based on GPU. This means that we need more processors, more data and development jumps to prepare the models to come. However, the development of the model in real time is not hampered by the development of the GPU. These generative updates occur much faster than progress in silicon.
If you accept that there is one thing like the time of AI and that the AI model law (devil, let’s call it the “Ulanoff law”) is a real thing, then it is easy to accept the vision of chatgpt on our imminent reality.
You may not be ready for that, but it comes all the same. I wonder what Chatgpt thinks.
