By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Eric Trump was right when he reportedly said on September 27 that the fourth quarter would be incredible for crypto holders. It’s gone so far… but not the way the bulls would have hoped.
Bitcoin plunged 28% to $82,000, down more than 5% in the last 24 hours alone. The total crypto market cap decreased by 27% to $2.8 trillion.
Regular readers of the Daybook are familiar with the catalysts: the October 10 automatic deleveraging event that shook market confidence, leaving arbitrageurs as marginal sellers in the cash market; the exhaustion of the discourse on digital asset treasury; a strengthening dollar; lower expectations for lower interest rates in the United States
On top of that, spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs are seeing record redemptions. These investment vehicles are seen as substitutes for institutional capital, which we were told tends to be inflexible and take long-term positions.
If so, then these record capital outflows lead me to wonder: Are these buybacks and price cuts a sign that institutions are bracing for greater macroeconomic stress? After all, bitcoin and the broader crypto market are fundamentally liquidity-driven plays focused on risk and risk aversion. Note that BTC peaked at least a month before stocks in late 2021.
Several issues could worsen, such as Japan’s fiscal challenges, deteriorating U.S. private credit, and a potential outsized dollar rally, all themes we’ve mentioned recently.
These could evolve into a more serious crisis. For now, the crypto market’s decline continues to give, with BTC’s price chart showing the next major support directly at around $75,000, alongside growing investor interest in deep out-of-the-money puts tied to BlackRock’s spot ETF. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- Macro
- November 21, 8:45 a.m.: speech by Fed Vice Chairman Philip N. Jefferson on “financial stability”. Watch live.
- November 21, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global US November PMI index. Manufacturing East. 52, East Services. 54.6, East. composite. 54.5.
- November 21, 10 a.m.: Final November data from the University of Michigan. Consumer Confidence Index Est. 50.5, 5-year inflation expectations Est. 3.6%.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- November 21: Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), pre-market.
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and governance calls
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
- Capybobo (PYBOBO) will be listed on Gate with the PYBOBO/USDT pair.
- to be listed on Bitmart with the SAPIEN/USDT pair.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 4.5% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $91,891.98 (24 hours: -9.71%)
- ETH is down 5.42% at $2,720.57 (24 hours: -10.18%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down -6.38% at 2,950.83 (24h: -10.42%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 7 Basis Points to 2.93%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0072% (7.446% annualized) on Binance
- The DXY is unchanged at 100.22
- Gold futures are down 0.70% at $4,031.70
- Silver futures are down 4.14% at $48.22
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 2.40% at 48,625.88
- Hang Seng closed 2.38% lower at 25,220.02
- The FTSE is down 0.49% at 9,480.78
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.26% at 5,499.73
- DJIA closed down 0.84% at 45,752.26
- The S&P 500 closed down 1.56% at 6,538.76
- The Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.15% at 22,078.05
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 1.23% at 29,906.55
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.32% at 3,029.45
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is down 4.3 basis points at 4.061%.
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.08% at 6,552.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.34% at 24,048.75
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.26% at 45,944.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 58.83% (-0.14%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03261 (-0.3%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,048 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $34.10
- Total fees: 3.17 BTC / $285,386
- CME Futures Open Interest: 134,245 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 20.5 ounces.
- BTC vs. gold market capitalization: 5.55%
Technical analysis
- With a decline to near $81,000, BTC retraced 80% of the rise from $75,000 in April to over $126,000 in early October.
- Prices fell below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement.
- The next support is around $75,000.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Thursday at $238.16 (-7.44%), -2.71% at $231.71 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $66.93 (-4%), -2.66% at $65.15
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.03 (-6.72%), -5.58% at $22.69
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.50 (0.3%), -3.01% at $35.40
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $10.24 (-7.75%), -4% at $9.83
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $12.78 (-4.27%), -4.85% at $12.16
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.16 (-1.49%), -2.37% at $14.80
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.78 (-4.31%), -3.99% at $9.39
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $38.76 (-4.06%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $14.19 (-2%)
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $177.13 (-5.02%), -5.41% at $167.55
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $18.47 (-6.39%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.30 (-5.78%), -5.38% at $8.80
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.47 (-8.18%), -3.24% at $2.39
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.70 (-4.49%), -4.12% at $1.63
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flows: -$903.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $57.38 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.32 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$261.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $12.6 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.24 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you were sleeping
- BTC Falls Towards Half Of $80,000 As Market Structure Weakens At Year-End (CoinDesk): Market maker FlowDesk said coins from long-dormant wallets are flooding exchanges and crushing bids, leading to defensive positioning, reduced liquidity and a rotation to lower-cost puts for downside protection.
- Exactly one year after the strategy’s all-time high, the Bitcoin-related slide is intensifying (CoinDesk): The strategy is down 68% from its all-time high of $543 last November, while bitcoin has fallen from October’s all-time high of over $126,000 to as low as $81,000.
- The falling yen is bullish for BTC and risk assets. Where is it? (CoinDesk): Rising yields in Japan are no longer pushing the yen higher as growing debt fears and monetary policy constraints undermine investor confidence and obscure its usefulness as a signal for crypto markets.
- Bitcoin Headed for Worst Month Since 2022 Crypto Crash (Bloomberg): Bitcoin has lost about 23% this month, analysts say, as massive liquidations, one-off ETF outflows and weak institutional demand deepen a correction in what could become the worst month since June 2022.
- Japan Approves $135 Billion Stimulus Plan to Help Households, Economy (The Wall Street Journal): The cash injection signals a shift toward aggressive fiscal policy, raising growth expectations but fueling fears of debt stress, further yen depreciation and reduced monetary policy flexibility.
