PALM BEACH, Fla. — Prediction markets are beginning to play a role in shaping traditional financial markets, New York Stock Exchange Chairman Lynn Martin said Wednesday at the World Liberty forum in Palm Beach.
“It was very clear to us… that prediction markets [were being used] as a contribution to traditional markets,” she said at the Mar-a-Lago event, highlighting a moment during the 2024 US presidential election when S&P futures surged unexpectedly. According to Martin, the move was later explained by crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket showing Donald Trump as the likely winner before other sources.
The commentary highlights a growing awareness among institutional players of how on-chain information can influence market behavior. Unlike traditional surveys or slow-moving forecasts, Polymarket’s real-time pricing offers a sort of crowdsourced probability feed that traders may find useful.
The interest of the NYSE goes beyond observation. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), owner of the NYSE, made a $2 billion strategic investment in Polymarket in October, signaling that the world’s largest stock operator sees a future in blockchain-based forecasting tools.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, who took office late last year, echoed Martin’s comments on the role of prediction markets in society, saying they have national security implications and act as a check on traditional journalism. He also discussed their role in entertainment and sports, the latter being an area that state regulators are paying particular attention to.
“States have truly waged this open war campaign against the markets that fall under the jurisdiction of the CFTC,” Selig said. “The CFTC has for decades [overseen] prediction markets.
He referenced the amicus brief the CFTC filed earlier this week with the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals in a case, which hours later denied prediction market provider Kalshi’s request to halt the state of Nevada’s efforts to shut down its sports-related prediction markets.
“We’re going to fight this, we’re going to make sure our markets are free, fair and have integrity,” he said. “We will not have state gaming commissions telling us how to regulate our markets.”
