Given the vocal and demonstrated support of the Trump administration at the crypto, some investors wonder if the days of Gold as a favorite coverage of the world are counted.
André Dragosch, European research manager at Bitwise Asset Management, suggests that the choice is not so simple. In an article on X on Saturday, he offered a play rule: gold still works as a protection against stock market losses, while Bitcoin acts more and more as a counterweight to stress of the bond market.
Gold: coverage of equity of choice
The reasoning begins with history. When shares sell, investors often rush into gold. Decades of data on the market support it. Gold’s long -term correlation with the S&P 500 has hovered near zero, and during market stress, it often decreases negative.
For example, in the 2022 bear market, gold prices increased by around 5% while the S&P 500 fell by almost 20%. This model illustrates why gold is always considered the classic “safe refuge”.
Bitcoin: a counterweight of the bond market
Bitcoin, on the other hand, often had trouble during the panics on actions. In 2022, it collapsed by more than 60% alongside technological actions. But his relationship with us the treasury bills was more intriguing.
Several studies note that Bitcoin has shown a low or even slightly negative correlation with state obligations. This means that when the prices of obligations flow and the Caux increase – as they did in 2023 during fears on debt and American deficits – Bitcoin has sometimes resisted than gold.
Dragosch’s to remember: investors do not need to choose some. They play different roles. Gold is always the best hedge when stocks line, while bitcoin can help portfolios when bond markets are under pressure from the increase in rates or tax worries.
How the rule takes place in 2025
The split was clear this year. As of August 31, gold increased by more than 30% up to date, according to World Gold Council data. This increase reflects a renewed demand during episodes of volatility of actions related to prices, slowdown in growth and political risks.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, won around 16.46% this year, based on Coindesk data, a solid performance since the yields of the US Treasury at 10 years fell by approximately 7.33%, according to Marketwatch data.
The S&P 500, compared, is up approximately 10% in 2025, according to CNBC data.
Divergent performance underlines the Heuristics of Dragosch: gold has benefited the nervousness of the actions the most, while Bitcoin held the land while bond markets border under the weight of higher yields and government loans.
Not just opinion: data support them
It’s not just Dragosch’s personal view. A research report on the earlier this year has noted that gold remains reliable coverage against stock market slowdowns, while Bitcoin tends to provide stronger yields during recovery and shows a lower correlation with American treasury bills. The report concludes that the detention of the two assets can improve diversification and optimize the yields adjusted to the risk.
Warnings
However, correlations are not static. Bitcoin links with the actions were strengthened in 2025 thanks to large entries in the ETF Spot, which brought billions of institutional investors.
The huge net entries in the FNB Bitcoin Spot makes BTC trade more as a general risk asset, reducing its “purity” as a compulsory hedge.
Short -term shocks can also blur the image. Regulatory surprises, liquidity pressures or macro-shocs can move both gold and bitcoin in the same direction, limiting their utility as hedges. In other words, Dragosch, in other words, is only – a heuristic, not a guarantee.
The bottom line
Trump’s pro-Crypto position raises a provocative question: is it time to completely abandon gold in favor of Bitcoin? Dragosch’s response, supported by years of data, is no. Gold still works better when actions fall, while Bitcoin can offer shelter when bonds are under pressure. For investors, the lesson does not abandon an asset for the other, but recognize that they cover different risks – and the use of the two can be the smarter game.
