US recession fears are in the air according to President Donald Trump’s price plan, with Polymarket and Kalshi prediction platforms indicating increased concerns that the economy will take a hit.
On Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, the chances that the country has slipped into the recession this year exceeded 50% for the first time since the Paris contract “US Receen in 2025” began to negotiate itself at the beginning of this year. The actions yes of the contract have increased to more than 50 cents of 39 cents in less than 24 hours.
The contract will be resolved to yes if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) confirms a recession at any time before December 31. The other condition requires consecutive quarterly contractions in the gross domestic product.
Kalshi, a regulated prediction market based in the United States, also indicates increased economic concerns among merchants, the probability of a recession in 2025 going to 54% against 40%.
The financial markets tend to be turned forward and can react to the increase in American recession ratings by sending risk assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies below. At the time of publication, the S&P 500 term contracts exchanged 3% less, pointing to a severe risk aversion to Wall Street and offering Bitcoin downside, which changed hands at $ 83,100, 1.5% less in 24 hours.
The scanning rates unveiled on Wednesday set a basic rate of 10% on all imports, as well as higher taxes in 60 countries identified as the worst offenders. China, the most strongly struck, justified a 34%levy in addition to the existing load of 20%, bringing the total to 54%. Basic prices come into force on April 5 and higher reciprocal rates on April 9.
Although the Trump administration expects prices to rectify trade deficits of important and persistent American products, in the short term, they could add to internal inflation and global instability. The latter could occur immediately if China, the European Union and others retaliate with higher prices, triggering a full -fledged world trade war.
Risk to be short -lived?
However, some observers say that pricing uncertainty could only lead to an economic slowdown rather than a full -fledged recession.
“The threat of a new price escalation remains a key concern, but our economic forecasts do not require a recession in the United States,” said UBS in a blog article. “In our basic case, a wide range of selective prices and counterfections should lead to slower economic growth compared to last year, but they should not prevent the US economy from expanding around 2% – its historical trend rate – this year.”
As for the financial markets, some observers say that the prices are dominant, which means that the initial risk reaction could be short -lived and quickly reversed by the expectations of interest rate reductions in the federal reserve.
“Remember – the prices are dominant, and the major prices are very dominant,” said Joseph Wang, operator of the Fedguy.com research portal on X, referring to his November article which detailed the way the important prices would cause more rate cuts.
Wang argued that although the prices are inflationary, they can be attenuated by foreign exchange rates and are ultimately transient. Meanwhile, damage to the feeling of the company can be durable, leading to unemployment, which the Fed would like to avoid.
The rate traders already assess a higher probability than the Fed reduces the reference loan cost in June, restarting the so-called softening cycle that started in September from last year.
