What we know so far

The capital is in political turmoil as the highly controversial 27th constitutional amendment is set to be tabled in the Senate this Friday.

With the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) expected to address the issue at its executive committee meeting scheduled for tomorrow, two questions seem to be dominating all circles: What will the final draft of the amendment contain, and can it realistically be adopted, given the fragile coalition that underpins the current parliamentary set-up?

Deliberations on the 27th Amendment began shortly after the 26th^th The constitutional amendment was adopted in October 2024. Yet until now, no one could say for sure what it would entail. On Monday, PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari gave the first indication of what it will consist of in an article on X.

Based on Bilawal’s tweet, the 27th Amendment aims to further reform the justice system, building on the changes introduced in the 26th Amendment. It proposes the creation of federal constitutional courts in the provinces, the reestablishment of executive magistrates and the transfer of powers to allow judges to move between jurisdictions.

Lawyer Mirza Moiz Baig said The Express PK Press Club that the proposed changes could undermine judicial independence. “The proposed amendments to Article 200, which remove the requirement to obtain a judge’s consent before transferring him or her, make judges vulnerable to executive influence. Likewise, the reinstatement of executive magistrates would violate the separation of powers guaranteed by Article 175, thereby eroding the independence of the judiciary.”

The amendment would also seek to reduce the provincial share in the National Finance Commission (NFC) award and introduce changes in command and control structures regarding the armed forces and appointments to the Election Commission. Among the key articles under discussion are articles 8, 199, 200, 234 and 243.

Article 243 concerns who commands the armed forces of Pakistan. It states that “the federal government shall have control and command of the armed forces.”

Read: Shehbaz, led by PML-N delegation, contacted PPP to support 27th amendment: Bilawal

It adds that “without prejudice to the general nature of the preceding provision, the supreme command of the armed forces belongs to the President”. There is still a lot of ambiguity about what changes will be made.

“Similarly, the creation of a Federal Constitutional Court full of do-nothing judges not only denigrates the Supreme Court by transforming it into an appeals court, but also eviscerates the judiciary’s ability to enforce fundamental rights.”

Baig added: “The proposed 27th Amendment will do to the Federation what the 18th Amendment did to save it. Revisiting the provinces’ share in the NFC and reducing provincial authority would dilute the autonomy and undermine the federal character of the Constitution.”

The NFC price has long been a source of tension between the Center and the provinces. Successive governments, including the PTI administration, have expressed dissatisfaction with the current distribution formula, under which 57.5 per cent of the resources in the federal divisible fund go to the provinces, while the Center retains 42.5 per cent.

Bilawal revealed that a delegation of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), led by Prime Minister Shehbaz, met President Asif Ali Zardari and himself to seek PPP’s support for the adoption of the amendment.

Much now depends on the outcome of the PPP Central Executive Committee meeting, which is expected to determine the party’s final position.

Yasser Kureshi, a researcher at the University of Oxford said The Express PK Press Club that despite the differences between the PML-N and the PPP on other issues, “there is likely to be consensus between them on the next steps of fragmentation and subordination of the judiciary through the 27th Amendment.”

He added that debates over judicial independence “are now largely irrelevant, especially since the 26th Amendment. What we must instead ask is: how does the current regime seek to use and arm the judiciary and how does this amendment meet that goal.”

“It is my understanding that the role of the judiciary now is to act as a buffer, providing legal cover for the executive branch’s efforts to organize and consolidate power,” Kureshi said.

The senate

Currently, 64 votes are needed in the Senate to pass a constitutional amendment. The PPP holds 26 seats, making it the most dominant party on the government benches, while the PML-N holds 20.

Among the coalition partners, the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) has four members and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) three. Independent senators from the government side include Abdul Karim, Abdul Qadir, Mohsin Naqvi, Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar, Asad Qasim and Faisal Vawda.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, addressing the Senate on Tuesday, assured lawmakers that all coalition partners were being consulted and unity was expected on key votes.

Learn more: Experts see the balance of power reshaping

“We will move forward in accordance with the Constitution and the law, giving every member the right to debate and share their opinion,” he said. “Allies are being kept informed and the project will only be finalized after mutual agreement.”

Dar reiterated that it was the constitutional duty of the government to propose amendments transparently and by consensus. “There should be no confusion about who will introduce the bill,” he said. “This is the government’s responsibility, and it will be done through Parliament, not outside it.”

On the opposition benches, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) remains the largest party, with 14 seats, and a newly elected senator is expected to be sworn in soon. The Awami National Party (ANP) has three seats, while the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) has seven. The Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen (MWM) and the Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC) have one senator each.

The PTI has unequivocally stated that it will not support the 27th Amendment. Tehreek Tahafuz-e-Aeen-e-Pakistan (TTAP) has announced its intention to block any attempt to secure its passage.

Former National Assembly Speaker Asad Qaiser criticized the PPP’s stance, saying: “There was once a PPP of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who laid the foundation of the Constitution, and another of Benazir Bhutto, who sacrificed her life for democracy. But today’s PPP is working hard to bury democracy.”

Also read: Government to table 27th amendment after full coalition consultation, says Dar

The last step

Once the draft amendments are finalized in the Senate, they will be submitted to the National Assembly for a vote.

The governing alliance may hold a two-thirds majority in Parliament, but without the support of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the passage of the 27th constitutional amendment remains uncertain. So, what is the party’s current position in the National Assembly and how many votes are needed to approve the amendment?

The National Assembly has 336 members, but with 10 seats currently vacant, the total number of sitting members stands at 326. To pass a constitutional amendment, the ruling coalition needs the “golden figure” of 224 votes.

Currently, the ruling alliance enjoys the support of 237 members in the National Assembly. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) is the largest party in the coalition with 125 members, followed by the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) with 22, the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) with 5, the Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP) with 4 and one member each from the Pakistan Muslim League-Zia (PML-Z) and the Awami Party of Balochistan. (BAP) and the National Party. The government also benefits from the support of four independent deputies.

The PPP, with 74 members, is the second largest party in the coalition. His support was crucial in helping the federal government achieve not only a simple majority, but also a two-thirds majority when necessary.

On the other hand, the opposition benches only have 89 members in total. These include 75 independents, 10 members of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-Pakistan) and one member each of Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC), Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen (MWM), Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M) and Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP).

We do not yet know anything with certainty about the 27th constitutional amendment, the project which will initially be presented to the Senate on November 7 will, in all likelihood, not be the amendment which will finally reach the vote of the National Assembly. What we do know is that the burden of passing the 27th Constitutional Amendment rests on the shoulders of the PPP, without whom the amendment could never come to fruition.

With additional reporting by Noor ul Huda Bhurgri