Crypto markets rebounded hard on Sunday after spending Saturday assessing what looked like the start of a protracted regional war.
Bitcoin soared to $66,843, up 5.2% in the past 24 hours, recouping the bulk of Saturday’s losses below $64,000 following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.
The rebound accelerated after Iranian state television confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, which markets interpreted as increasing the chances of a shorter conflict.
Solana led the rally among the majors, jumping 10.8% to $86.42. Ether rose 7.5% to reclaim $1,994, bringing it back within $2,000 for the first time since Thursday. Cardano added 6.7%, dogecoin gained 6.5%, XRP rose 5.6%, and BNB climbed 4.8%.
The weekly table, however, is more complicated. Bitcoin is still down 1.6% over seven days, XRP has lost 2% and dogecoin is down 2.5%. Solana and Ether are the only majors to return to the green this week, up 1.7% and 1.1% respectively.
The weekend’s volatility was huge, but the net movement was small, reflecting the broader story of a market that made global headlines without actually going anywhere.
The rebound looks convincing on a 24-hour chart but fragile in context. Saturday’s selloff occurred due to low weekend liquidity. Sunday’s rally occurred on the same low liquidity, but in the opposite direction.
The real test comes in the hours when stock, oil and bond futures markets reopen and institutional capital gets its first chance to react to Saturday’s events.
The Polymarket Ceasefire Contract gives a 78% chance of achieving a ceasefire between the United States and Iran by April 30 and 61% by March 31, as reported earlier on Sunday.
If these prices hold once the traditional markets have digested the weekend, the rebound will have weight. However, if oil climbs and the gap between stocks narrows at the open, the crypto’s optimism on Sunday could fade in the same way that Wednesday’s push to $70,000 did.
