Since mid-July, Bitcoin (BTC) The ascent slowed down more than $ 120,000. Prices reached a new summit of $ 124,157 early Thursday, but have since falled back at $ 123,000, lacking momentum.
This raises a question: who withdraws bitcoin and adds sales pressure to the market? According to observers, the answer lies in blockchain data, which show that the old wallets have liquidated their assets.
“It can be linked to the concentrated sales pressure of long -term holders who have recently accelerated their sales,” said Gabriel Halm, Blockchain’s main analyst at Sentora, in Coindesk.
“Historically, the sales phases of long -term holders are defined properly in the Bitcoin cycle. However, this time, accumulation during the withdrawal of Q2 has given way to a renewed sale, suggesting that the market structure could change.”
The BTC offer controlled by long -term holders or portfolios with history of possession of parts for 155 days or more decreased by more than 300,000 BTC in four weeks, according to Data Source Bitcoin Magazine.
Several dormant wallets, inactive for more than a decade, have become active in the past four weeks, moving parts on the channel for the first time in years, perhaps in for-profit operations.
The analysis company of the Glassnod Blockchain said last week that the profits by long -term holders continues, although a slower rate than in July.
“$ BTC Realization Proficious by long -term holders (7d SMA) Sleaned up in August after a racing in July greater than $ 1 billion / day – one of the largest profit periods ever recorded, “said Glassnode on X.
Sam Gaer, director of investments at the Monarq Asset Management management fund, said the supply of old portfolios has run up and was largely absorbed, corresponding to the model observed last year when the German -style state of Germany liquidated its assets.
“BTC price levels have tended to consolidate around psychological levels (Think $ 100,000, $ 110,000, $ 120,000) And specifically around ATH levels. This same scheme was seen last month at $ 110,000 when we touched peaks of all time in zone 112, then we derived several times below, “said Gaer.
The persistent sale of higher strike calls by the institutions could have influenced the speed of the rally. They generally do it to obtain additional return in addition to market holdings. According to Gaer, the so-called crushing of calls led to a volatility crisis. Implicit volatility, which represents the turbulence of prices expected over a specific period, is driven by the demand for options.
“The crushing activity of calls by long -term holders continues in an apparently tireless manner, with a flight of flight which left the BTC with weekend flights in adolescents – incredible in my experience. I use the phrase ’40 is the new 60 ‘during referencing to BTC Global [implied] Representation of volatility – This is a historical sign of a maturation market, “said Gaer.
What to follow?
The path of the slightest resistance remains upwards, thanks to the signs of strong soaking and winds of macroeconomic tail.
“1.88 million speeches bought 1.3 million BTC from an average of $ 118,000, indicating a large layer of demand that has so far prevented a deeper withdrawal,” Halm at Coindesk told.
Speaking of Macro, the market is becoming more and more comfortable with the idea that the new normal inflation in the post-breeze world is much higher than the 2% target of the Fed and expects the central bank to reduces rates in September.
Steve Gregory, founder of Vtrader, expects a renewed rotation of the funds in the bitcoin of the ether.
“We can see a return rotation to Bitcoin and a break in the level of $ 120,000 while the volatility of 3 months of Bitcoin has reached its lowest since September 2023.
