Crypto bulls’ pain persisted on Monday as Bitcoin remained significantly lower during the afternoon in the United States, amid growing investor uncertainty regarding the macroeconomic outlook.
Just after the US stock market closed, bitcoin fell 3% in the last 24 hours to $86,000. ether and Solana all fell more than 5%. Most crypto stocks posted deeper losses, with Circle (CRCL), Galaxy Digital (GLXY) and Strategy (MSTR) falling more than 8% and Coinbase (COIN) losing 6.4% on Monday. Meanwhile, some stocks fared relatively better amid the carnage, including Bullish (BLSH), which posted a 2.5% loss, and eToro (ETOR), down 3.7%.
The decline in cryptocurrencies comes as traditional markets are only slightly lower, with the Nasdaq closing down 0.6% and the S&P 500 down 0.15%. AI-related stocks, such as Broadcom and Oracle, however, continue to suffer from last week’s weak results. This sentiment has penalized Bitcoin miners, many of whom have seen significant benefits by shifting their business plans toward AI infrastructure. Hut 8 (HUT), CleanSpark (CLSK), Cipher Mining (CIFR) and IREN (IREN) are all posting double-digit percentage declines on Monday.
Deciphering the decline
Cryptocurrency trading firm Wintermute highlighted signs of fatigue regarding risk assets, noting that stocks and digital tokens are “digesting macro uncertainty rather than entering a prolonged risk aversion phase.”
While bitcoin had traded between $88,000 and $92,000 for over two weeks, it has now fallen below $86,000, raising questions about whether further decline is likely. “Without evidence of forced sales or sustained liquidity deterioration, downward moves are more likely to remain orderly rather than disorderly,” Jasper De Maere, desk strategist at Wintermute, wrote in a Monday note.
A key factor weighing on markets is last week’s Federal Reserve meeting, which resulted in a widely expected 25 basis point cut. But forward guidance has become very cautious, De Maere said, with the Fed’s new projections showing just one rate cut in all of 2026, a slower pace than many investors had expected. Markets continue to expect more than three cuts next year, leaving a gap between investor positioning and the central bank’s signal.
This mismatch between inflation data and policy expectations creates a volatile environment for risk assets, he added, particularly given the Bank of Japan’s expected rate hike this week and its plans to liquidate more than $500 billion in ETF assets, which have stoked concerns about global liquidity and yen carry.
“Selective purchases at the bottom of the wave”
Looking ahead, De Maere expects volatile and limited trading to continue until early 2026, with no clear trends emerging until more clarity is provided on growth, liquidity and policy. He noted that macroeconomic concerns have dominated markets for months, but it could be possible that bottom-up narratives could re-emerge soon, such as evolving U.S. crypto regulations.
He sees no signs of forced selling of crypto, meaning any withdrawals could remain orderly, barring shock. “Until then, expect wider ranges, volatile price action and selective buying down, rather than a clear trend,” he wrote.
Analysts at Bitfinex somewhat agree, saying that the nature of bitcoin’s market structure has fundamentally changed and that the famous “four-year cycle” is no longer the dominant driver of price action.
“With annual BTC issuance now below 1%, the influence of the halving has diminished,” Bitfinex analysts wrote in a report published Monday. “The declines since 2024 have been significantly smaller as structural flows from ETFs, corporates and state-linked entities have absorbed multiples of annual mining supply.”
They argued that bitcoin is now moving into a new phase: one dominated by patient, long-term capital and lower volatility, more akin to gold.
Analysts have also noted a historical correlation between gold and bitcoin, pointing out that BTC often lags gold’s rally by 100 to 150 trading days. With gold having rebounded strongly in 2025, they said bitcoin could be poised to follow in the coming months, after a consolidation phase.
Paul Howard, senior director at trading company Wincent, also projected a more constructive outlook for 2026, but he cautioned against expecting fireworks any time soon.
“The 2025 regulatory changes, coupled with the easing of monetary policy, have established a good foundation for the continued development of the crypto asset class,” Howard said. “But I don’t expect BTC to reach new all-time highs this side of Easter.”
