As bitcoin (BTC) hovers around the $90,000 to $95,000 zone, down more than 10% from its all-time high reached just under four weeks ago, a contrast is growing between traders – whose technical analysis tools show the leading cryptocurrency could be due for another fall – and long-term investors who believe the bull run is far from over.
This is according to David Siemer, CEO of Wave Digital Assets, a company that provides asset management services to funds and high net worth individuals in the crypto space. The company counts Charles Hoskinson, CEO of the company behind Cardano, among its clients.
“In my 14 years of owning Bitcoin, I have never seen such a dichotomy,” Siemer told CoinDesk in an interview. “Traders are all worried, nervous and hedged, completely neutral or worse. And long-term people are all very optimistic.
“There’s a very good chance we’ll get to $200,000 [per bitcoin] this year,” Siemer said. “Do I think we’ll see $1 million a piece in my lifetime? Of course. Not soon, you know, not next year. …The smarter, more connected people I know are also very optimistic. A lot more will happen in the next six months than most people think. »
Topping the list of developments for the coming year are many jurisdictions – including the United States, Russia, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and some European countries – looking to take big steps towards crypto. , according to Siemer. (Wave runs crypto education programs for various branches of the US government, such as the Internal Revenue Service or the US Marshals Service, as well as other executive agencies around the world; in fact, government practices constitute the (company’s fastest-growing business.)
These measures, whatever form they take, will likely have positive impacts on the private sector in some of these countries, Siemer said. “[Japan or Singapore]these are societies that they actually trust and rely on their governments. If their government says everything is fine, it’s actually fine. It’s different from the United States where we think our guys are idiots.
What is sparking such sudden interest in the crypto industry? The huge success of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, for example, is forcing financial institutions around the world to think about ways to compete. This means creating exotic new products, like multi-token yield funds, to offset the liquidity sucked out by BlackRock’s IBIT.
“ETFs launched in America and they completely devastated all the Bitcoin ETPs in the world,” Siemer said. “All of them had these terrible products, charging 1.5%. All these guys were crushed. Regulators, for their part, will tend to be supportive, Siemer said. For example, the European Union could end up producing a more user-friendly version of the Markets in Crypto-Asset (MiCA) Regulation.
The chances of seeing new strategic Bitcoin reserves are also high, Siemer said. “Even if the United States does not create a reserve, at least several other countries probably will,” he added. Not that he’s pessimistic about the prospects in the United States, but he added that the wave is currently in talks with seven different states that are considering the creation of a reserve, including Texas, Ohio and Wyoming .
What about the federal government? Siemer estimates the odds are slightly better than 50-50, thanks in part to the nearly $19 billion in bitcoin it already owns.
“It’s a good start for a bitcoin reserve,” Siemer said. “All they have to do is not sell it. It’s much more acceptable to the tax base than buying, you know, $10 billion worth of bitcoin.
